We have two terribly priced favourites at Flushing Meadows with Serena Williams a prohibitive 6-4 outright. She was clearly suffering from a shoulder injury when she lost to Elina Svitolina in Rio and two weeks may not be enough recovery time, especially given she turns 35 at the end of September. The world number one (perhaps not for long) could not have been handed a much tougher opener either with Ekaterina Makarova a very capable player on this surface.
Angelique Kerber has had a fantastic year and the Australian Open champion must go close here. She ran into an inspired Monica Puig in Rio and was feeling the effects of a hard couple of months when she lost to Karolina Pliskova in the final in Cincinnati. Anything at 8-1 or better looks a good bet from here and while I wouldn't put you off the 7-4 about her winning the fourth quarter, it's a little short for my blood.
Pliskova has a terrible record in Slams while Puig is unlikely to repeat her Olympic heroics especially as she has done little since but celebrate winning Puerto Rico's first ever gold medal (and only the hardest of hearts could hold that against her). Garbine Muguruza has been disappointing since winning at Roland Garros while Simona Halep still has mental doubts to dispel in majors.
That leaves Madison Keys as my second selection despite being in what looks a very hot third quarter. The American might have gone all the way last year but for bumping into Serena on a her 'A' game in the last 16 and she's shown steady improvement this year. 16-1 or better looks fair.
Regular followers will know I think a great deal of Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova and she could not have been given a much better draw. She gave Serena a match at Wimbledon and, if she finds her best form, can definitely outrun her odds. Louisa Chirico is no gimme in the first round but I think she has a decent shout of winning the second quarter and then who knows?