Unfortunately for Gemma Collins, "star of the show" is not the same thing as "running the show". The GC’s fall from grace this past week has been catastrophic, and she no longer looks like a contender in the outright or for Top Female.
Scotty T remains at the head of the market but, in my opinion, he is still not giving viewers enough. He has the air of being a potential default winner, but has slipped in various online polls, where others have come through.
Dominating the airtime for all the right reasons has been Tiffany ‘New York’ Pollard. She definitely seems to have momentum in the markets right now, at a best-priced 4/1 in the outright and a solid 4/7 favourite for Top Female. The turning point for her was when she mistakenly thought David Gest was dead, which could well turn out to be the defining moment of the series. Being a sassy American female who is outspoken, she doesn’t seem to have the natural type of profile that tends to win the show. However, with plenty of producer favour on her side, she should be in with a chance. The fact that she would be a new type of winner is a notable reason why the producers should continue to favour her. Tiffany is likely to be the only competitive female in the final, and a split vote between several males could mean she has a decent shot.
Another housemate to keep an eye on might be John Partridge. He is definitely one of the biggest talking points of the series. Like with Darren Day, John is an excellent fit for the voting audience, and the departure of David Gest should be helpful to both of them in the long run. At the moment he remains a villain in the house, but one with considerable public support. John reminds me of 2014’s James Jordan, whose antagonistic persona took him all the way to third place. However, John is a lot more vulnerable, and he might have the potential to turn into a hero again and increase his support over the next sixteen days. As the biggest price of the four market leaders, he should be worth a small each way bet at 7/1.