Just over a month ago, we were down to the last 48 in The Voice. Back then, I wrote an article that respected the chances of favourite Kevin Simm, questioned just how much the audience would take to second-favourite Cody Frost, and suggested a small interest on joint third-favourite Jolan, who shared that position with Lydia Lucy.

We are now down to eight, and not that much has changed with the semi-final approaching. Those three still top the market in that order - at 2/1, 11/4 and 11/2 respectively - whilst Lydia Lucy has drifted out to 16/1. The 8/1 fourth-favourite Jordan Gray wasn't even in the last 48 initially, but was brought in as a reserve when someone dropped out.

Talking of which, last weekend's quarter-final and first live show saw two contestants withdraw for different reasons, and the BBC didn't even see fit to replace them. There's a sense of producers caring very little about the show before it transfers to ITV next year. That has impacted ratings - below five million last Saturday - which may make the next two weeks less predictable.

Nonetheless, Kevin Simm has everything going for him at the top of the market. The good-looking, humble, thirtysomething young Dad of two is everything the voting demographic tend to favour. What's more, the BBC seem happy with the prospect of him succeeding. His VT, staging and comments were all highly favourable last weekend. Tellingly, mentor Ricky Wilson preferred him over Jolan in giving out his fast pass to the semi-final.

Meanwhile, Cody Frost brought another leftfield, moody performance - of Duran Duran's 'Ordinary World' - with dark, off-putting staging to match. The rebellious-looking teen is everything the voting demographic tends to shy away from. She now also has stiff competition among viewers looking for something more individual, in transgendered Jordan Grey, whose performance of 'Shake It Out' was far more joyous and likeable.

Jolan gave a solid enough rendition of 'Yes', and is the kind of act favoured by the demographic, but hasn't really developed enough to look like he can beat Kevin to the housewives' vote. The other four - Lydia Lucy, Lyrickal, Vangelis and Heather Cameron-Hayes - are not favoured in the market. That seems fair enough based on what we've seen on our screens, although Heather's YouTube stats are decent enough, and Vangelis is urging the Greek diaspora in the UK to get behind him.

Still, I think this prize is Kevin's to lose, and he warrants a 4-point win bet at 2/1 to be crowned The Voice of 2016. It's worth having a 1-point saver on Jordan Gray at 8/1, in case of a wave of goodwill that's enough to cause an upset with ratings so low. I realise that these bets, accompanied by the longstanding 1-point interest on Jolan at 7/1, represents a book that leaves Cody Frost out in the cold. But I'm happy to take that risk in the circumstances.
Kevin Simm - 4pts @ 2/1
Jordan Gray - 1pt @ 8/1