Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots – Sunday 23:40, Sky Sports 1

While the New England Patriots weren’t as assured as some expected them to be in their victory over the Houston Texans, they still did enough to propel them into this week’s NFC Championship game. The Steelers side that they face at home are on a nine-game win streak, but they didn’t record a single touchdown against the Kansas City Chiefs last weekend, relying on six field goals in their 18-16 win; they will have to improve if they are to overcome a Tom Brady-led Pats outfit.

This weekend more than ever, all eyes will be on the two quarterbacks, namely Brady for New England and Ben Roethlisberger for the Steelers. Interestingly, the last quality QB the Patriots faced was Russell Wilson in Week 10, who helped the Seahawks put up 31 points, a season high for teams playing the Patriots – it’s possible that the Pats may struggle to contain a quality quarterback like Roethlisberger. That said, Brady has put up 24 career touchdowns versus the Steelers, throwing for just three interceptions en route to a 114.2 QB rating. The fact that the Patriots are favourites only by roughly 5.5 points (only the fifth time since 2011 they’ve been favourites by under six points in a home game with Tom Brady starting) suggests that bookies think this should be a tight match-up.

The value here lies in the total points market. The Steelers have gone under the line in 16 of their last 22 games and the Patriots have gone under in New England’s last six AFC Championship appearances, and with the Steelers offence looking weak we’re backing unders here.

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Under 50.5 total points - 1pt @ 1.95