NBA Finals MVP Odds: Odds Imply LeBron a Lock to Win Finals MVP, but 30% of Bettors like AD

Lebron's odd's imply a 88% chance he wins Finals MVP, but more than 30% of bettors are backing AD
Brian Good
Thu, October 8, 5:29 PM

Who Will Win the 2020 Finals MVP?

LeBron James is no stranger to the NBA Finals. The King has appeared in the last eight Finals and, in that time, has won three titles and three Finals MVP awards.

This year, with his team ahead 3-1 over the Miami Heat in the NBA Finals, oddsmakers have all but guaranteed LeBron will win his fourth MVP award. Even still, a disproportionate amount of bettors have decided to back James’ teammate, Anthony Davis, to win the award.

LeBron James

In true LeBron fashion, he has done basically everything for his team to lift them to this point. James is averaging 27.8 points, 11 rebounds and 8.5 assists per game in the Finals. He’s also shooting 56.1% from the floor and 36.4% from deep.

He’s the constant leader. The player that everyone on the team looks to for guidance in pressure moments (which there have been few of as they’ve cruised through every round). LeBron has long been ridiculed for his record in the Finals, if they were to win this year, he’d be 4-6 lifetime, but there is no denying his greatness this time around.

Anthony Davis

Davis has long been considered one of the most talented players in the NBA but lacked the postseason success required to be called great. This year, with LeBron by his side, AD has flourished.

His numbers are worse than LeBron’s in almost every single major category, but still impressive. He’s averaging 25.8 points, 9.3 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 1.8 blocks per game through Game 4, but he’s also shooting a better percentage from the floor, beyond the arc and free-throw line.

He’s also had a flare for the dramatic, hitting multiple late shots to put his team in a position to close it out.

Looking for a complete betting breakdown of Game 5 of the NBA Finals? We've got you covered HERE

2020 Finals MVP Betting Breakdown

As of Thursday, LeBron’s best odds of -800 imply an 88.9% chance he wins his fourth NBA Finals MVP award. You’d expect the betting public to follow a similar trend, but only 59.16% of all bets are on him to win it.

Davis, at +600, has just a 14.3% shot at taking home the award, according to oddsmakers, but 32.39% of all Finals MVP bets are on AD.

At -800, there is little value in taking LeBron, especially with another player on his team playing at such a high level, but the numbers clearly indicate the award is his for the taking.

2020 Finals MVP Odds

Player NBA Finals MVP Odds Implied Probability Public Betting %
LeBron James -800 88.9% 59.15%
Anthony Davis +600 14.3% 32.39%
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