Heisman Watch: Ranking the Top 5 Heisman Odds Candidates Heading into Week 10
This week’s Heisman Watch is going to look just a bit different than last week’s, but that’s what happens to the latest Heisman odds when the nation’s second-leading rusher has his Heisman moment against his school’s biggest rival.
Even outside of Kenneth Walker III, there were some major shakeups in this week’s Heisman Watch. We had players dropping out of the top 5 entirely, some good prices that were available disappearing off the Heisman odds board and some Heisman hopefuls finding their way into the top 5.
So, let’s take a look at our Heisman Watch list, according to the latest Heisman odds heading into Week 10.
Heisman Watch: Top 5 Heisman Odds
1. Bryce Young – Alabama QB (+190)
I know I promised a shakeup in this week’s Heisman Watch list, and we’ll get there, but it didn’t come in our No. 1 spot. No matter what some major media outlets tell you, Bryce Young is still the favroite to win the Heisman, according to the latest Heisman odds. Last week, Young and Alabama were off on their bye week, so he didn’t have a real chance to help his case on our Heisman Watch list, but his inactivity doesn’t seem to have impacted the likelihood of him winning the award. This week, Alabama hosts LSU at 7 pm ET on ESPN. The world will be watching, but unfortunately for Young and his Heisman odds, LSU is pretty bad this year and any performance he has will likely be tarnished by that fact. Still, his season-long numbers are just absurd. Youg has thrown for 2,453 yards, 26 TDs and just three INTs while racking up an 88.6 QBR, good for third in the nation.
2. CJ Stroud – Ohio State QB (+450)
As someone that hopped on Stroud’s +2500 odds a few weeks ago, I’m torn about him having this spot on our Heisman Watch list. Obviously, I’m happy to see he’s taken over the No. 2 spot when it comes to the latest Heisman odds. But, I’m stuck thinking that he could be in the +250-+300 range had he played well against Penn State this past weekend. Stroud was fine. He got the win and Ohio State looks poised to take home another Big 10 title and make the CFP. But, we need Stroud to start producing Heisman moments if he’s going to win the award, and his play this past weekend was pretty average. Still, there is a reason he’s this far up the Heisman odds board and he’s seen his odds slashed so heavily in recent weeks. If he’s going to win the Heisman, he needs to shred Nebraska and Purdue these next two weeks and then lead his team to wins over Michigan State and Michigan in the final two games of the season. He does that and CJ Stroud will be fighting Bryce Young for the No. 1 spot on our Heisman Watch list.
3. Kenneth Walker III – Michigan State RB (+600)
I know you’ve been hearing for about a week now that Kenneth Walker III is now the Heisman frontrunner. But, as you can see from the latest Heisman odds, he’s not. But, that doesn’t take away from just how amazing he was this past week in a win over No. 6 Michigan. Walker ran the ball 23 times for 197 yards and an insane FIVE touchdowns. Against the best defense he’s faced all season, the MSU running back put up 8.6 yards per carry and was the reason that Michigan State was able to upset Michigan. Out of every single person on this Heisman Watch list, he’s the only one that has a certified Heisman moment. That performance against Michigan will go down in Spartan history and be talked about for years, and rightfully so. But, if I’m going to play devil’s advocate here, he still has an uphill battle when it comes to his Heisman odds. For starters, Kenneth Walker III still does not lead the nation in rushing, he’s second. That honor belongs to Syracuse’s Sean Tucker who has 1,267 yards to Walker’s 1,194. The second, and probably biggest, hurdle in Walker’s way in Ohio State. Michigan State is likely not going to win the Big 10, or even appear in the title game. If they lose to Ohio State in a few weeks, how can they give the award to Walker instead of CJ Stroud?
4. Matt Corral – Ole Miss QB (+650)
Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Just a few weeks ago, Corral was actually the favorite on our Heisman Watch list. Now, following a disappointing loss to Auburn, he finds himself in danger of falling out of the Heisman odds top 5 entirely. To be fair to him, his latest Heisman odds have little to do with his play and more to do with his team losing and others around the country stepping up, but there is pretty much no path to Corral winning the Heisman this season. Ole Miss isn’t going to be playing for an SEC title. They play a decent Liberty team this week before closing out against A&M, Vandy and Mississippi State. It’s tough to win a Heisman when your team isn’t playing meaningful games in November/December or January. But, don’t get too down on yourself, Matt Corral. You will likely be the first QB to have their name called this upcoming April in the NFL Draft. So, while you may not have the No. 1 spot on our Heisman Watch list anymore, you’ll still get the last laugh.
5. Caleb Williams – Oklahoma QB (+1000)
Shockingly, this is Caleb Williams’ first time on our Heisman Watch list, meaning it’s the first time he’s been in the top five when it comes to Heisman odds. Honestly, most sportsbooks have had Williams within the top-5 for a long time, but the lone +5000 price that FanDuel had on him was keeping him out of the party. But, it looks like FanDuel’s Heisman odds trader has woken up and slashed his odds this week, so Williams finds himself in the No. 5 spot. Caleb Williams is a rare Heisman candidate that we haven’t seen before and likely won’t see again. On the one hand, the true freshman didn’t start the year as the starter at OU. No matter what he does, his end-of-year numbers won’t compare to the likes of CJ Stroud or Bryce Young or even Matt Corral. But, if Williams wins a Big 12 title, takes his team to the CFP and makes a run, he has an argument for the nation’s best college football player. The main issue with that is the CFP committee doesn’t seem too fond of Oklahoma’s resume, despite the fact that they’re still unbeaten.