Colts Super Bowl Odds: How the Matt Ryan Trade Impacts the Odds
Colts Super Bowl Odds: How the Matt Ryan Trade Impacts the Odds
During the Deshaun Watson saga, one name that kept popping up as a possible suitor was the Atlanta Falcons. It was a peculiar fit for some, as they had former MVP Matt Ryan under center already. But, it became clear that Atlanta had told Ryan they planned on moving on at QB.
Once Watson signed with the Browns, some wondered if the Ryan-Falcons marriage could be salvaged. On Monday, we got our answer.
The Atlanta Falcons traded the 36-year old Ryan to the Indianapolis Colts for a third-round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft.
This is now the third offseason in a row that the Colts have decided to try and acquire a veteran QB rather than develop their own through the draft.
Two seasons ago, the Colts signed longtime Chargers QB Phillip Rivers. After one season in Indy, Rivers retired. The Colts then sent a first and second-round pick to the Philadelphia Eagles in exchange for Carson Wentz. Wentz lasted one season in Indy before he was traded to the Washington Commanders. Now, it's Ryan that will be playing QB for head coach Frank Reich.
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Colts Super Bowl Odds
| Odds | Implied Chance | |
|---|---|---|
| Before the Trade | +3500 | 2.8% |
| After the Trade | +2500 | 3.8% |
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As you can see above, the Matt Ryan trade has already had a massive impact on the Colts Super Bowl odds.
Prior to the trade for Ryan, the Colts had just a +3500 chance to win the Super Bowl this season, which makes sense. Without Wentz, the Colts' expected starting QB was former Texas Longhorn Sam Ehlinger. Those odds gave the Colts a 2.8% chance to win the Super Bowl.
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However, now that the Matt Ryan trade seems to be official, those odds have gotten much shorter. The Colts Super Bowl odds now sit at +2500, implying a 3.8% chance to win it all. That means that trading for Matt Ryan improved the Colts' chances to win the Super Bowl by a full percentage point.