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2022 NFL Draft First QB Drafted Odds, Predictions and Best Bets

When looking at the 2022 NFL Draft class, there doesn't seem to be a consensus number one quarterback. Mike Tannenbaum and Matt O'Leary make their selections for who they think the first quarterback taken will be.
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2022 NFL Draft First QB Drafted Odds, Predictions and Best Bets

Coming off a quarterback class that saw five quarterbacks go in the top 15 this year's class isn't nearly as hyped up as 2021. Trevor Lawrence was the consensus top quarterback, and he went first overall to Jacksonville as expected, but this year that's not exactly the case with the quarterback rankings.

Some will have Malik Willis as the first quarterback, others prefer the safer floor of Kenny Pickett, and there's even some love for Desmond Ridder too. When looking at the odds, here's what the expectation is for the first QB drafted.

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First QB Drafted Odds

NameOddsImplied Chance
Malik Willis-17563.64%
Kenny Pickett+13043.48%
Desmond Ridder+12007.69%
Matt Corral+16005.88%

At -175 (Bet $175 to win $100), Malik Willis is the favorite to be the first quarterback taken in the 2022 NFL Draft. With Willis, it's easy to see why a team might take a swing on his upside. He has an incredibly strong arm with great legs. The thing that could potentially be worrisome to some will be how Willis handles the jump in competition going from Liberty to the NFL if asked to play right away.

The next best odds are to Kenny Pickett at +130 (Bet $100 to win $130). Some prefer Pickett to Willis because of the safer floor. The ceiling is definitely limited, which should be taken into consideration here, but it's really not that crazy to see some organizations prefer the "safer" option at the quarterback position.

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Matt O'Leary Pick: Kenny Pickett +130 (Bet $100 to win $130)

This quarterback class is so strange, I could see Kenny Picket going sixth to the Panthers or 20th to the Steelers and not bat an eye. That's such a huge range but I'm taking two things into play here for my selection of Kenny Pickett.

First is the value, I do not feel anywhere close to confident enough in Malik Willis coming off the board first to lay the -175. With Carolina being the first threat, in my opinion, to select a quarterback in this class I point back to the safety thing and the organization thing.

Would Matt Rhule and company take a massive gamble on Malik Willis or will he go with Pickett, who they seemed to love in the predraft process?

Earlier in the week, offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo said that Sam Darnold was their starter and then immediately walked that back. Will Matt Rhule and the Panthers go down with the Sam Darnold ship or will they want their own guy? My money is on their own guy, and personally, I like the value I'm getting with Pickett as the first quarterback to go in this class.

Mike Tannenbaum: Kenny Pickett +130 (Bet $100 to win $130)

I believe Kenny Pickett will be the No. 1 overall QB drafted. He's a 49 game starter, 24 years old and a very poised and polished draft prospect. He would immediately come in and be ready to start. He had a very significant improvement in his production in 2021 and has underrated athleticism. The 33rd Team ranked Pickett as our No. 24 overall prospect and our top QB.

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OddsChecker sports writer Matt O'Leary brings experience sports betting advice to the OC staff. You may recognize Matt from his popular New York Jets youtube channel, but his vast knowledge of sports and betting goes well past the boundaries of New York.


Mike Tannenbaum is a co-founder of The 33rd Team and has over 20 years in NFL front offices. Mike served as the Executive Vice President of Football Operations for the Miami Dolphins from 2015 to 2018 and was the General Manager of the New York Jets from 2006 to 2012.


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