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NFL Draft On The Clock

2022 NFL Draft Odds: Oddsmakers' Mini-Mock NFL Draft 2.0

It’s NFL Draft Week and boy do the odds look different now than they did three weeks ago. Only three picks in the top-10 are the same as they were, and only one of the top-5 picks is the same. So how did things change?

Kyle Newman - April 25, 2022, 1:13 PM EDT

5 mins

2022 NFL Draft Odds: Oddsmakers' Mini-Mock NFL Draft 2.0

It’s NFL Draft Week and boy do the odds look different now than they did three weeks ago. Only three picks in the top-10 are the same as they were, and only one of the top-5 picks is the same. So how did things change?

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1. Jacksonville Jaguars – Travon Walker, EDGE, Georgia

Three weeks ago Aidan Hutchinson was a lock here. Oddsmakers gave him -300 odds, or an implied 75% chance to be the pick. Now, he’s given +150 odds, or an implied 40% chance.

Replacing him as the new favorite is Travon Walker. Walker’s rise has been one of the most amazing things to watch this offseason. Three weeks ago he was given +325 odds, or an implied 23.5% chance to be the pick. Now with just days to go, Walker is given -155 odds, or an implied 60.8% chance.

Prospect

Odds on 4/3/2022

Odds Today

Travon Walker

+325

-155

Aidan Hutchinson

-300

+150

Ikem Ekwonu

+1000

+600

2. Detroit Lions – Aidan Hutchinson, EDGE, Michigan

Oddsmakers were so sure that Hutchinson was going to go No. 1 earlier this month that Hutchinson wasn’t even given odds to go No. 2. Now, he’s EVEN or an implied 50% chance to be the pick. He’s followed by Oregon star Kayvon Thibodeaux who’s also seen a strong rise in his odds. Going from +450 to +200 in recent weeks.

The biggest faller here is without a doubt Malik Willis. The Liberty QB was given +235 odds to be the pick at No. 2, but he’s now given +1000 odds. That’s a change from a 29.9% chance to a 9.1% chance to be the pick.

Prospect

Odds on 4/3/2022

Odds Today

Aidan Hutchinson

N/A

EVEN

Kayvon Thibodeaux

+450

+200

Malik Willis

+235

+1000

3. Houston Texans – Sauce Gardner, CB, Cincinnati

Former Jets GM and Dolphins VP of Football Ops Mike Tannenbaum told OddsChecker, “Sauce Gardner, he’s a true Difference making corner”. Oddsmakers clearly feel the same, as they moved his odds from +800 to +350 over the last three weeks.

Don’t discount an OT here. Ikem Ekwonu went from +200 to +500, and Evan Neal went form +250 to +500 over the last three weeks. They’re not the favorites they once were, but they’re in play.

Prospect

Odds on 4/3/2022

Odds Today

Sauce Gardner

+800

+350

Ikem Ekwonu

+200

+500

Evan Neal

+250

+500

4. New York Jets – Kayvon Thibodeaux, EDGE, Oregon

Oddsmakers haven’t moved on this one. It’s been Thibodeaux to the Jets all the way. The Oregon edge rusher is given +175 odds to go fourth overall, a slight bump from his +200 odds three weeks ago.

However, his primary competition for the pick has changed. Ikem Ekwonu has gone from off the board to +600. Meanwhile, Jermaine Johnson has gone from +400 to +700 to be the pick.

Prospect

Odds on 4/3/2022

Odds Today

Kayvon Thibodeaux

+200

+175

Ikem Ekwonu

N/A

+600

Jermaine Johnson

+400

+700

5. New York Giants – Ikem Ekwonu, OT, North Carolina State

This is a toss-up. Both Ekwonu and Neal are given +300 odds to be the pick here. Ekwonu gets the nod because oddsmakers have him as the favorite to be the first offensive tackle off the board.

Rumors have been backing Charles Cross here, but oddsmakers are wary. Cross is given +500 odds.

Prospect

Odds

Implied chance

Ikem Ekwonu

+300

25%

Evan Neal

+300

25%

Charles Cross

+500

16.7%

6. Carolina Panthers – Kenny Pickett, QB, Pittsburgh

This is another one that oddsmakers haven’t moved off of. Three weeks ago, the Panthers were given +150 odds to select Kenny Pickett, and today those odds are sitting at +200.

If they don’t go Pickett, oddsmakers believe the choice will come down to Malik Willis or Charles Cross, both are given +400 odds here.

Prospect

Odds

Implied chance

Kenny Pickett

+200

33.3%

Malik Willis

+400

20%

Charles Cross

+400

20%

7. New York Giants – Derek Stingley, CB, LSU

Oddsmakers have long had CB here, but it wasn’t Stingley. However, with Gardner off the bord that’s how the board has fallen.

Stingley is given +350 odds, or an implied 22.2% chance to be the pick here. Behind him is once again Charles Cross at +500, then Evan Neal at +600. Why is Cross ahead of Neal now, but not at No. 5? Oddsmakers think it’s more likely Cross gets to this pick with his over/under set at 7.5 and Neal’s at 5.5.

Prospect

Odds

Implied chance

Derek Stingley

+350

22.2%

Charles Cross

+500

16.7%

Evan Neal

+600

14.3%

8. Atlanta Falcons – Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State

Three weeks ago, this pick was Jermaine Johnson. Now the Florida State star is fifth on the odds market at +900. Meaning he’s not really in the conversation here. So who is?

It’s all offense here. Garrett Wilson leads the way at +500, but he’s quickly followed by Jameson Williams at +600. Malik Willis is also in play here at +600 as a potential replacement for Matt Ryan.

Prospect

Odds

Implied chance

Garrett Wilson

+500

16.7%

Jameson Williams

+600

14.3%

Malik Willis

+600

14.3%

9. Seattle Seahawks – Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State

This feels like a classic case of overthinking. Oddsmakers feel so sure that Evan Neal won’t be here, that his odds are taking a hit. As a result, Cross ends up going first because Neal was never a favorite.

Cross is given +400 odds here, and Neal is +500. Jermaine Johnson is also in the background lurking at +800.

Don’t sleep on Jameson Williams at +1400 though. When OddsChecker asked Mike Tannenbaum who could be the surprise pick of the top-10 and where might he go, he responded, “Seattle – taking Jameson Williams taking him in the 10 top.”

Prospect

Odds

Implied chance

Charles Cross

+400

20%

Evan Neal

+500

16.7%

Jermaine Johnson

+800

11.1%

10. New York Jets – Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama

Speaking of Jameson Williams, the Alabama star is now expected to slot into the top-10. He’s given +300 odds, or an implied 25% chance to be the pick at 10.

His biggest competition is Drake London at +600, and Kyle Hamilton at +1000. Both star players who’s athletic testing left much to be desired, in London’s case because he chose not to do any.

Prospect

Odds

Implied chance

Jameson Williams

+300

25%

Drake London

+600

14.3%

Kyle Hamilton

+1000

9.1%

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