2022 NFL Draft First QB Taken Odds: Will A QB Go in the Top 15 Picks?
When looking at the 2022 NFL Draft, will a quarterback go in the top 15? Kyle Newman breaks down where the first quarterback selection will come and looks at the First QB Taken Odds.
Kyle Newman - April 28, 2022, 1:03 PM EDT
5 minutes2022 NFL Draft First QB Taken Odds: Will A QB Go in the Top 15 Picks?
There’s been a lot of debate swirling around the quarterbacks in this draft class. For a while, the expectation was that Malik Willis would be the first quarterback off the board at Number 2 overall. Then it was Kenny Pickett at Number 6. On the day of the draft, oddsmakers don’t believe either goes top-15, let alone top-10.
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Kenny Pickett is expected to be drafted by a team with an earlier pick. Oddsmakers give +200 odds or an implied 33.3% that he goes to New Orleans with either the Saints 16th or 19th selection. If not the Saints, then they believe the Panthers are still an option at +250, or an implied 28.6% chance. The Panthers are more likely on a trade back than at 6, as oddsmakers have Charles Cross as the favorite to go 6th overall at +350, Pickett is +400 to go at 6.
That means oddsmakers believe the Steelers get their wish for a second straight year, as Malik Willis falls right into their lap. The Steelers are given +125 odds, or an implied 44.4% chance to draft Willis. If not them, oddsmakers believe there’s a chance the Saints go with Willis at +300, or an implied 25% chance. That’s a result of the possibility that the Panthers make a move for Pickett.
The market here is so confused. It’s true that oddsmakers believe that Pickett has a better chance to be drafted by teams with a higher selection. However, they also believe that Willis is going to be the first quarterback selected. He’s given -200 odds, or an implied 66.7% chance to be the first quarterback off the board. The only way that works is if the Steelers plan on trading up for Willis. So, will we see a big draft day move by a team that’s usually not very aggressive?
Odds | Quarterback | Implied chance |
|---|---|---|
-200 | Malik Willis | 66.7% |
+200 | Kenny Pickett | 33.3% |
+1000 | Desmond Ridder | 9.1% |
