NFL Survivor Pool Predictions, Picks, Strategy for Week 5 Eliminator Challenge, Knockout Games
We've made it through the first month of NFL survivor, and hopefully you're still rolling in your office pool. It's been a relatively easy road so far with the chalk, but it really comes down to the quality of teams you've used vs. saved for later. Peter Alexis breaks down the best choices for NFL survivor pools in Week 5.
Peter Alexis - October 2, 2025, 6:30 PM EDT
5 Minute ReadNFL Survivor Pool Predictions, Picks, Strategy for Week 5 Eliminator Challenge, Knockout Games
Welcome back to NFL Survivor Week 5, with four profitable weeks in the book. It has been one of the easiest starts to a survivor pool in documented history, with only one underdog of 6+ points winning outright (Browns vs. Packers in Week 3). That's the lowest amount of upsets since 1979.
As a result, the vast majority of pools are still packed with contestants, and it shows no signs of switching up. There are a lot of big favorites on the board again this week, as the Bills, Rams, Cardinals, and Lions are all favored by 7+ points. Will any of them get knocked out? Let's take a look at the best survivor stragies with help from our FairPlay AI data.
In our main survivor pool, we've used the Broncos, Cardinals, Seahawks, and Texans. The idea is to try and save the top teams to trust in later weeks. We have no interest in using the Arizona Cardinals again with their mediocrity, or the Houston Texans with their inability to score on anyone except the Titans. The other main focus is using home teams and fading bad teams on the road, instead of targeting live dogs who can cause a ruckus. As we turn to Week 5, let's evaluate the best choices for NFL Survivor 2025.
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NFL Survivor Picks
1. Detroit Lions (at Cincinnati Bengals)
- Spread: Lions -10.5
- Moneyline: -550
- FairPlay AI Win Probability: 91%
- Mathematical Best Use Remaining: 1st out of 13
- Estimated Usage Percentage: 15%
The Lions stand out as the premier survivor pick of Week 5, entering as massive -10.5 favorites with a commanding 91% win probability according to FairPlay AI. Their opponent, the Bengals, have looked out of sync without consistent quarterback play, making Detroit’s dominant defense and explosive offense a mismatch on paper. With the #1 mathematical best-use ranking, this is the strongest week to deploy the Lions and advance safely.
The Lions won't really be useful again until Week 12 when they host the Giants, as this is the largest spread we can expect from them for awhile. After blowing out the Browns last week and the Bears a few weeks before that, they are an easy bet to keep rolling against a disastrous Bengals franchise. The wheels have fallen off in Cincinnati, with the Bengals failing to cross the 50-yard line into Broncos territory last week after the first drive. Troy Aikman even called them a bad product on the football field in the Monday Night Football beatdown. They aren't going to turn it around against Detroit.
2. Arizona Cardinals (vs. Tennessee Titans)
- Spread: Cardinals -7.5
- Moneyline: -395
- FairPlay AI Win Probability: 73%
- Mathematical Best Use Remaining: 1st out of 13
- Estimated Usage Percentage: 31% (Highest of Week)
The Cardinals are another prime option, hosting a reeling Titans team that has been blown out multiple times this season. Arizona is favored by 7.5 points with a 73% win probability, and FairPlay AI also pegs them as their best use of the season. If you’re hesitant to burn Detroit early, this is a sharp alternative to secure a Week 5 win while saving other top-tier teams for later.
However, tread carefully. This is certainly the last time you'll want to use the Cardinals, which is for a reason. They are going to be underdogs in a large amount of their future matchups, and are already down to their third-string running back due to injuries. While the Titans have been atrocious, they are looking to fight back in Week 5 with the coaching staff feeling the pressure to change it up and perform. Arizona has lost two in a row, and has been relatively stagnant on offense in both matchups. Look for the Titans to come out firing, and they may surprise a few people.
With this being the heaviest selection option in most pools at over 30%, you don't want to go down with the masses. The line has fallen from +8.5 to +7.5 during the week, and there's 68% of the money vs. 46% of the total bets on Titans spread per our oddschecker+ Public Betting Splits tool, insinuating sharp action on the Titans. They may not win, but Cam Ward is fired up and will try to bounce back from the blanking at the hands of the Texans last week.
3. Los Angeles Rams (vs. San Francisco 49ers)
- Spread: Rams -8.5
- Moneyline: -450
- FairPlay AI Win Probability: 75%
- Mathematical Best Use Remaining: 6th out of 13
- Estimated Usage Percentage: 19%
With the 49ers missing Brock Purdy and two of their top receivers, the Rams enter Thursday night as solid -8.5 favorites and a 75% projected win probability. They’re not the top “mathematical use” this week (6th overall), but the timing is appealing given San Francisco’s injury troubles. If you’re comfortable riding with Puka Nacua and a surging Rams defense, this could be the right spot to capitalize. Otherwise, save the Rams for freebies against the Saints and others in the coming weeks. Unlike the Cardinals, they will be very useful down the line, and have one of the best remaining future values of all teams because of their schedule and who their home opponents are.
4. Buffalo Bills (vs. New England Patriots)
- Spread: Bills -8
- Moneyline: -420
- FairPlay AI Win Probability: 76%
- Mathematical Best Use Remaining: 7th out of 13
- Estimated Usage Percentage: 5%
Buffalo has been a steady survivor option for years, and Week 5 offers another strong spot. They’re 8-point home favorites against a Patriots squad that has been competitive but unable to finish games. With a 76% win probability and ranked 7th in best use remaining, the Bills aren’t the most valuable long-term play, but they bring enough safety if you need to pivot away from Detroit or Arizona.
The vast majority of users played the Bills last week against the Saints, and got a bit of a scare as New Orleans kept it close through the third quarter. They were -15.5 favorites and nearly blew up the entire survivor pool, but pulled it out in the end. If they let the Patriots hang around though, we could see a big upset in this AFC East Divisional game. There are better times to use the Bills instead of a primetime showdown with a rival, and that's why we're only expecting a 5% usage rate and a 7th out of 13 best spot with easier opponents down the line.
5. Indianapolis Colts (vs. Las Vegas Raiders)
- Spread: Colts -7
- Moneyline: -310
- FairPlay AI Win Probability: 71%
- Mathematical Best Use Remaining: 2nd out of 13
- Estimated Usage Percentage: 23%
The Colts are quietly a sharp survivor pick this week, favored by 7 points with a 71% win probability at home. The Raiders have shown little consistency, and Indy has found stability behind their balanced offense. With the #2 mathematical best-use ranking, this is one of the few weeks you’ll feel comfortable leaning on the Colts — making them a strategic choice if you want to save bigger-name teams for later.
Much has been made about the Daniel Jones new era in Indianapolis, and he'll return home after his first loss to the Rams and try to bounce back. The Colts have continued to build on the spread this week, with bettors not buying into Pete Carroll's Raiders after continuous early struggles. But unlike the Titans, the Raiders can make a few things happen on offense. We're expecting to see over 20% of users take the Colts in this spot, but they certainly aren't invincible. This could be a big knockout like the Cardinals.
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