NFL Survivor Pool Predictions, Picks, Strategy for Week 9 Eliminator Challenge, Knockout Games
The Survivor board saw 51% of the teams get wiped out in Week 8 after losses by the Falcons and Bengals. Many players cashed on the easy Colts play, and will now look to maintain that strategy with some huge favorites in Week 9. Peter Alexis breaks down the best NFL Survivor pool options in Week 9 of the NFL season.
Peter Alexis - October 30, 2025, 5:00 PM EDT
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Justin Fields turned NFL Survivor upside down when he stunned the Bengals with a 39-point outing and game winning score in Week 8. That, combined with Kirk Cousins and the Falcons getting stonewalled by the resurgent Dolphins led to over half of the pool getting eliminated.
Week 9 of the NFL season brings one of the easiest survivor pool slates of the year, a respite from last week's chaos with several double-digit favorites on the board. The Los Angeles Rams headline the week as overwhelming favorites over the New Orleans Saints, followed by the Packers and Chargers in strong positions as well.
Our FairPlay AI projections rank all five of these teams among the best options of the week, though how you deploy them should depend on what’s left in your survivor arsenal and your path through the remaining schedule. Let's break down the best options.
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NFL Survivor Picks
1. Los Angeles Rams (vs. New Orleans Saints)
- Spread: Rams -14
- Moneyline: -1000
- FairPlay AI Win Probability: 84%
- Mathematical Best Use Remaining: 1st out of 10
- Estimated Usage Percentage: 47% (Highest of the Week)
Starting with the Los Angeles Rams, this is the “if you have them, use them” spot of the week. Sitting at -14 over the Saints, the Rams have the highest spread and close to the top FairPlay AI win probability at 84%. They return home well-rested off a bye after hammering the Jaguars in London two weeks ago.
More importantly, they face a New Orleans team that just benched Spencer Rattler in favor of rookie Tyler Shough, who will make his first official start. That instability under center gives Los Angeles an enormous advantage. The Rams rank first out of ten in mathematical best use remaining, meaning there’s no better future spot to hold them. With 47% of survivor entries expected to take them, this is the consensus “free square” for Week 9.
The Rams combine the week’s highest win probability, easiest matchup, and best mathematical timing. While other favorites like the Packers and Chargers are viable, Los Angeles checks every box for Week 9 survivor pool strategy, and we'll look to stay undefeated by taking what the defense gives us in these spots.
2. Green Bay Packers (vs. Carolina Panthers)
- Spread: Packers -13.5
- Moneyline: -850
- FairPlay AI Win Probability: 83%
- Mathematical Best Use Remaining: 2nd out of 10
- Estimated Usage Percentage: 25%
The Green Bay Packers also find themselves in a favorable position, laying 13.5 points at home against the Carolina Panthers. It remains uncertain whether Bryce Young will be healthy enough to return or if Andy Dalton will start again, but neither outcome should scare survivor players. Green Bay is fresh off a dominant Sunday night win over the Steelers, and Jordan Love has started to regain his early-season form.
However, unlike the Rams, the Packers do have some appealing future uses on the schedule against the Bears and Vikings. Their mathematical best use ranks second overall, but with an estimated 25% of entries using them this week, it might be worth saving Green Bay for later if you have the Rams available.
3. Los Angeles Chargers (at Tennessee Titans)
- Spread: Chargers -9.5
- Moneyline: -480
- FairPlay AI Win Probability: 90%
- Mathematical Best Use Remaining: 2nd out of 10
- Estimated Usage Percentage: 23%
The Los Angeles Chargers are quietly one of the week’s most analytically favored teams, with FairPlay AI projecting a massive 90% win probability on the road against the Tennessee Titans. That’s the highest of any matchup in Week 9, even greater than the Rams.
Still, road favorites are always risky in survivor contests, and the Chargers have a history of playing down to their opponents (losing to the Giants in Week 4). This could be a comfortable win given the Titans’ anemic offense, but the smarter play might be to hold onto Los Angeles for their Week 13 home game against the Raiders, where they’ll be in a more stable spot.
4. Detroit Lions (vs. Minnesota Vikings)
- Spread: Lions -8.5
- Moneyline: -475
- FairPlay AI Win Probability: 71%
- Mathematical Best Use Remaining: 1st out of 10
- Estimated Usage Percentage: 1%
As for the Detroit Lions, only about 1% of entries are expected to use them this week, largely because most survivor players have already burned Detroit earlier this season. For those who still have them, hosting the Vikings presents a solid opportunity.
Detroit is coming off a bye and a tough loss to the Chiefs, and the defense should be rested and ready to face JJ McCarthy in his first game back from an ankle injury. Still, with the Lions ranking first in mathematical best use remaining, holding them for Week 12 at home against the Giants is the better long-term strategy.
5. Baltimore Ravens (at Miami Dolphins)
- Spread: Ravens -7.5
- Moneyline: -420
- FairPlay AI Win Probability: 83%
- Mathematical Best Use Remaining: 7th out of 10
- Estimated Usage Percentage: 1%
Finally, the Baltimore Ravens face the Miami Dolphins as 7.5-point road favorites, but this is not the week to use them. The FairPlay AI model projects them to win by 10.5 points and gives them an 83% win probability, yet it’s only the seventh-best spot out of ten remaining to deploy Baltimore. The Ravens are just regaining health with Lamar Jackson back in the lineup and look poised for a strong run, but there are far better situations ahead. Save them for Week 12 against the Jets or a later matchup where the risk-reward ratio makes more sense.
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