2025 Nobel Peace Prize Odds: Donald Trump Fades in Nobel Peace Prize Before Friday's Announcement
The 2025 Nobel Peace Prize is set to be announced on Friday, October 10th, and many bettors were speculating that Donald Trump could pull out the award. But as the date looms closer and a lack of serious peace plan in Ukraine or Gaza materializes, the odds seem like a longer shot. Peter Alexis examines Donald Trump's chances at the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize.
Peter Alexis - October 8, 2025, 1:00 AM EDT
5 Minute ReadNobel Peace Prize Odds: Donald Trump Longshot Chance to Win Award Ahead of Friday, October 10 Announcement
Donald Trump’s pursuit of the Nobel Peace Prize has once again entered the spotlight, though his chances of winning appear to be slipping away. The former president has been lobbying for the honor as he attempts to broker peace in both the Ukraine-Russia conflict and the ongoing fighting between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. To win, however, he must be nominated by another world leader or a major governing body, and so far, his diplomatic efforts have not led to a decisive breakthrough.
The 2025 Nobel Peace Prize will be announced on Friday, and speculation is growing about who will be honored. Trump has made clear that earning the award is a personal goal, but the betting odds suggest he remains an underdog. At FanDuel Canada, Trump is listed at +380, behind Yulia Navalnaya (+195) and Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms (+300). Other contenders include Volodymyr Zelenskyy (+470), Antonio Guterres (+900), and Greta Thunberg (+1100), all of whom are seen as more likely recipients at this stage.
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2025 Nobel Peace Prize Odds
Candidate | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
Yulia Navalnaya | +195 | 33.9% |
Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms | +300 | 25% |
Donald Trump | +380 | 20.8% |
Volodymyr Zelenskyy | +470 | 17.5% |
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Nobel Peace Prize Odds Breakdown
When comparing the betting markets, a stark difference emerges between sportsbooks and prediction exchanges. On Kalshi, a free-market platform, Trump’s chances sit at just 4%, equivalent to roughly +2400 in American betting odds. That trails Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms (27 percent), Yulia Navalnaya (11 percent), and the International Court of Justice (6 percent). The disparity indicates that while sportsbooks may be offering a tempting number to attract casual bettors, the more efficient Kalshi market views Trump’s chances as minimal.
The difference could stem from perception versus probability. FanDuel Canada's novelty odds reflect Trump’s notoriety and the media attention surrounding his peace efforts, while Kalshi’s figures are derived from real-money trading on likely outcomes. Given that the Gaza ceasefire remains incomplete and no formal agreement has been reached in Ukraine, Trump’s case for the Nobel looks weaker than the sportsbooks imply.
At the end of the day, this could end up being a test of which platform prices reality more accurately. Trump may be pushing to make tangible progress in the coming days, but without concrete diplomatic achievements, his chances of hearing his name called on Friday appear remote. These awards have been all but decided by now, and the Norwegian Nobel Committee is unlikely to change their minds at the buzzer.
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