3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Friday, April 25th, Featuring Juan Soto and More
Every team is back in action on Friday, April 25th after a light slate the day before. Let's take a look at the best home run prop bets to make for this loaded slate, including Juan Soto on the road against his former team in Washington. Charlie DiSturco breaks down his 3 best MLB props for Friday night.
Charlie DiSturco
| 4 min
3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Friday, April 25th, Featuring Juan Soto and More
All teams are back in action for Friday, April 25th's MLB slate. The Chicago Cubs get their usual standalone Friday afternoon game against the Philadelphia Phillies before the rest of the league squares off later that evening. Even with some elite pitching matchups on deck - Shane Baz vs. Michael King and Chris Sale vs. Zac Gallen to name a few - there's still plenty of home run opportunities scattered throughout.
As I have done daily on my Twitter, each home run pick I give out comes with a .2u risk. On the year, I am +4.09u.
So without further ado, let's dive into my three favorite home run picks for Friday April 25th's MLB slate.
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Best MLB Home Run Props: Friday, April 25th
1. Juan Soto to Hit a Home Run +260 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
It’s definitely going to be weird watching Juan Soto return to Washington as a member of the division rival New York Mets. The whole world has been waiting for Soto’s breakout, and Friday poses as a perfect matchup for the superstar to send one to the bleachers.
Jake Irvin takes the mound after two straight quality starts. While he has been able to mitigate damage with a tad of batted ball luck (.237 BABIP), he continues to struggle limiting barrels and the long ball. He has allowed 2+ home runs in two of his five starts this season and five overall.
Irvin’s barrel rate has creeped up to a career-worst 13.4% and most importantly, he’s really struggled against left-handed hitters. This season, just under 25% of all hits against lefties have been home runs and 47% overall have gone for extra bases.
Soto has just four barreled balls this season but it’s only a matter of time before the home runs start coming. He ranks in the 94th percentile in squared-up% (34.8) and does have a 48% hard-hit rate despite the struggles.
In his last 11 at-bats, Soto has batted a ball 99.5+ mph on five separate occasions. Given the fact that Irvin has really struggled to keep the ball on the ground against lefties in 2025 (45.7 FB%), all signs point back to Soto. Even at this low +260 number.
2. Rafael Devers to Hit a Home Run +390 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
Just like Michael Corleone in “The Godfather: Part III,” just when I thought I was out, Rafael Devers pulls me back in.
There are too many reasons not to love Devers’ underlying numbers. He is barreling the ball more now than he ever has in his career - 5% higher to be exact. He’s in the top 2% of all hitters in hard-hit rate (60.9%) and yet, he has just two home runs on 13 barrels.
Devers’ breakout is going to happen eventually. It’s just a matter of when. Ben Lively takes the mound for Cleveland on Friday and, quite frankly, I can’t turn my back on Devers.
Lively has been absolutely mashed by left-handed hitting this season, allowing a .302 average and a 38% extra-base hit rate. He’s always had issues with the long ball – even dating back to last year, he allowed 13-of-62 hits from lefties (21%) to leave the park – entering with a 1.49 career HR/9 rate.
Looking at Devers’ exit velocity data shows that he’s oh-so-close to a barrage of home runs. Of his last 15 batted balls, eight have been 100+ mph off the bat. I know I may sound like a broken record, but positive regression will come for Devers, who has an xSLG (.478) well over 100 points higher than actual (.327).
3. Tyler Soderstrom to Hit a Home Run +410 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
The Athletics have really become a scary offense and after Brent Rooker’s breakout last season, it was Tyler Soderstrom who said ‘hold my beer,’ and take a giant leap forward.
Soderstrom is tied for the MLB lead in home runs (9) this season and all the underlying metrics say it’s not a fluke. The lefty ranks in the top 5% of all hitters in barrel rate (20.3%), xSLG (.610) and sweet-spot% (45.9).
He has absolutely dominated right-handed pitching (8 HRs, 1.092 OPS) and gets a plus matchup against Sean Burke in hitter-friendly Sacramento. Burke has really struggled to find his footing this season. The right-hander ranks in the bottom 5% of all pitchers in both xBA (.318) and barrels allowed (17.3%). He doesn’t strike out many batters and his rising hard-hit rate and xERA (8.85) show that opponents have had no issues seeing the ball come out of his hand.
Over the last four starts, Burke has allowed six home runs, including 2 +in two of those. Three of the seven hits allowed against left-handed hitters have left the park – one actually coming at the hands of Soderstrom.
While it’s been a bit of a home run lull for Soderstrom, his exit velo chart hasn’t changed. Of his last seven batted balls, all were 94+ mph and five reached 101 or higher. I’m happy to back Soderstrom here has he continues to shock the MLB world with his breakout.
Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets Today
- Juan Soto to Hit a Home Run (+260) Click here for the best Mets vs. Nationals odds
- Rafael Devers to Hit a Home Run (+390) Click here for the best Red Sox vs. Guardians odds
- Tyler Soderstrom to Hit a Home Run (+410) Click here for the best White Sox vs. Athletics odds
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