3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Monday, April 28th, Featuring Gunnar Henderson, Shohei Ohtani

Despite a light eight-game slate to kick off the week on the diamond, there are plenty of hitter-friendly matchups to take advantage of. I'm expecting Monday to be a fun one for MLB and there could be plenty of offense after what has been a lull in the power the last few days.

So let's get right into it with my three favorite home run bets to make for Monday, April 28th.

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Best MLB Home Run Props: Monday, April 28th

1. Gunnar Henderson +600 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds

Where the heck is Gunnar Henderson?! 

Fresh off a 37 home run season in 2024, the lefty returned to the lineup and has largely struggled at the plate. While the hard-hit rate is elite (57.9%), Henderson has been striking out at an all-time high and walking at an all-time low. 

But this price is too good to pass up for me. Will Warren does not generate many chases out of the zone (11th percentile, 21.9%) and has really struggled to limit hard contact (48.2%). Though he’s shut down right-handed hitters, it’s the lefties giving Warren issues. 

A third of all hits from left-handed hitters have gone for extra bases, and the OPS rises over 200 points vs. righties. Despite Henderson’s struggles at the plate, the majority of that has come left-on-left. 

Henderson is hitting .286 against right-handed pitching with a pair of home runs and a 57% extra-base hit rate. Given how hard he is hitting the ball, I would expect barrels to follow suit. In a great matchup against a soft-tossing, oft-erratic Warren, I’m happy to back Henderson at this high of a price. 

2. Jake Burger +330 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds

For the second time in as many starts, JP Sears squares off against the Texas Rangers. While I was ever-so-close to running back Adolis García here in this matchup, it was actually Jake Burger who caught my eye. 

It’s only a matter of time before the power surge comes for Jake Burger. The free-swinging righty has an xSLG of .431 and has the second-highest barrel rate (15%) of his career. Yet, Burger has just three home runs and a .326 slugging percentage to show for. 

While Burger strikes out a ton, he’s also the perfect matchup here against a fastball-heavy Sears. We talked about this last week – Sears loves to fill up the zone. That’s perfect for an all-out power hitter like Burger. 

And if you look at his recent batted balls, Burger is absolutely crushing it. Eight of the last 10 put into play by Burger have come 102 mph or higher off the bat. He was in a pitcher-friendly Oracle Park but now returns to the friendly confines of Globe Life Field.

Even with his struggles at the plate, Burger has been crushing the ball (51.7% hard-hit rate). It’s always hard to predict home runs, but his recent batted balls indicate that he’s locked in at the plate. Success should follow suit shortly. 

3. Shohei Ohtani +300 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds

Let’s cap it off with a late-night home run from Shohei Ohtani. At this price? You can’t think twice about it. 

Ohtani has now gone six games without a home run - which feels like a lifetime. I get it. But there’s no sign of Ohtani struggling at the plate. In fact, he’s absolutely crushing the ball still. Of his last 12 batted balls, only one came in below 99 mph. He’s hit five doubles and two triples in that span, barely missing out on the long ball. 

I don’t have to add much more with Ohtani, but for what it’s worth, he ranks in the 94th percentile or better in barrel rate (18.9%), average exit velocity (95 mph), hard-hit rate (60.8%) and xSLG (.632). In other words, the home runs will come. 

Edward Cabrera takes the mound for Miami and the right-hander is a perfect home run candidate here. He’s an average arm that relies on his swing-and-miss stuff. He puts the ball in the air and has a double-digit barrel rate allowed (10%). 

So far Cabrera has pitched three games this season - he has allowed a home run in each of the three. Lefties have absolutely crushed him - .278 average, .869 OPS vs. righties hitting 143 and .641 - leaving the only reason to be afraid here is his lack of control.

But if you’re going to give me Ohtani at anywhere 3-to-1 or higher, I’m biting.

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets Today

• Gunnar Henderson to Hit a Home Run (+600) Click here for the best Yankees vs. Orioles odds
• Jake Burger to Hit a Home Run (+330) Click here for the best Athletics vs. Rangers odds
• Shohei Ohtani to Hit a Home Run (+300) Click here for the best Marlins vs. Dodgers odds

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