3 Best Home Run Prop Bets: Can Juan Soto Find Repeat Success Against Zac Gallen, D-Backs After Two-Homer Game?
Juan Soto has been finally heating up for the Mets, and ripped off two homers in a game against the Diamondbacks last week. He's facing Zac Gallen again today as the teams get together for a rematch, can Soto find similar success tonight on the road? Jason Radowitz is targeting him and two others in his 3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Tuesday, May 6th.
Jason Radowitz - May 6, 2025, 11:03 AM EDT
4 min3 Best Home Run Prop Bets: Can Juan Soto Find Repeat Success Against Zac Gallen, D-Backs After Two-Homer Game?
We've hit a home run prop in each of my last two MLB Home Run prop articles. Let's go for three straight with tonight's 16-game slate.
Consider tailing my picks below!
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May 6 Best MLB Home Run Props
Seiya Suzuki to Hit a Home Run (+400) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
Over the last 30 days, Seiya Suzuki has added a .322 ISO and wOBA of .388 against his last 63 righties faced. He's also hit just 25.6% of ground balls during that time and has added 37.2% of fly balls with 25.6% of line drives.
Suzuki has earned 53.5% of hard contact and a team-leading 20.9% barrel percentage against righties over the last month.
Meanwhile, he'll take on Justin Verlander of the Giants. Verlander is a veteran righty who has allowed a .222 ISO and wOBA of .321 to his first 85 righties this season. In addition, Verlander has induced 35.9% of ground balls and has allowed 34.4% of fly balls. He's also given up 46.9% of hard contact and a 14.1% barrel percentage.
This is an elite matchup for Suzuki. Let's take him to knock one over the wall.
Kerry Carpenter to Hit a Home Run (+350) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
Kerry Carpenter has slugged a .231 ISO and wOBA of .398 against his last 70 righties. The Detroit lead-off hitter has also struck out only 8.6% of the time against righties in the last month.
In addition, Carpenter has slugged 33.9% of fly balls with 54.2% of hard contact, and he's only hit 33.9% of ground balls.
Tonight, he'll take on Chase Dollander of the Rockies. Dollander is a righty who has allowed a .312 ISO and wOBA of .396 to his first 55 lefties. The rookie right-hander has also allowed 38.5% of fly balls and 56.4% of hard contact, with just 18.2% of strikeouts against lefties this year.
Beyond that, Dollander has given up a 15.4% barrel percentage to lefties and has earned only 8.6% of swinging strikes.
Carpenter should be able to take advantage.
Juan Soto to Hit a Home Run (+460) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
Juan Soto has turned his swing around over the last week. He's had many home run opportunities that fell short or were robbed. But he could certainly smash one tonight.
He's facing Zac Gallen of the Diamondbacks, who has already allowed a .247 ISO and wOBA of .387 to his first 89 lefties. Gallen has also allowed 39.3% of fly balls, with just 33.9% of ground balls against lefties this season.
Beyond that, Gallen has walked 12.4% of lefties this season. He's falling behind in counts, and Soto has one of the best eyes in baseball. If he gets into many hitter counts, he'll be in an excellent position to launch one.
Gallen has already allowed 50% of hard contact and a 10.7% barrel percentage to lefties. Soto has hit 63.1% of hard contact and a 13.8% barrel percentage against righties. This is a good matchup for Soto.
Amid all the metrics, it can't be lost that Soto homered off Gallen last Thursday as part of his two-homer game. He later homered off a D-backs' reliever for his second shot of the night, but he already knows how to take Gallen deep and seeing him in short succession here will only assist his matchup.
Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets Today
- Seiya Suzuki to Hit a Home Run (+400) Click here for the best Giants vs. Cubs odds
- Kerry Carpenter to Hit a Home Run (+350) Click here for the best Tigers vs. Rockies odds
- Juan Soto to Hit a Home Run (+460) Click here for the best Mets vs. Diamondbacks odds
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