MLB Prop Cheat Sheet: Targeting Brent Rooker, Elly De La Cruz and More on Dinger Tuesday
Dinger Tuesday has been a mainstay promo in the MLB season at major sportsbooks, so it's time to cash in with the best bets. MJC Locks is here with his MLB Prop Cheat Sheet for Tuesday, May 13th, targeting stars like Brent Rooker and Elly De La Cruz make a splash tonight.
MJC Locks
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MLB Prop Cheat Sheet: Targeting Brent Rooker, Elly De La Cruz and More on Dinger Tuesday
There is a loaded MLB slate today with 15 games and all teams in action. Every Tuesday (Dinger Tuesday) the sportsbooks seem to like giving out profit boosts, so here are a few of my favorite home run looks to target when building out your home run parlays for tonight.
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MLB Prop Cheat Sheet: Tuesday, May 13
1. Elly De La Cruz to Hit a Home Run Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
One player that I am looking to target for a home run is Reds start player Elly De La Cruz. Weather looks to be slightly above average hitting conditions and the matchup sets up nicely for Elly against White Sox pitcher Jonathan Cannon. Cannon has a career 1.47 HR per 9 innings ratio in his career.
He's already given up 6 HRs on the season, but that number would be 9 HRs if he pitched every game where he is pitching tonight, which is at Great American Ballpark - one of the best HR hitting ballparks in the MLB. Cannon primarily throws Cutter, Changeup, and 4-Seam Fastball to lefties which Elly hit 8 of his 10 HRs (vs. righties) last season. I love his odds to go yard tonight!
2. Ben Rice to Hit a Home Run Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
The next player I am looking to target tonight is Yankees lefty Ben Rice. Rice has been making great contact the past week or so as 8 of his last 9 batted balls vs righties have been hit 97+ MPH exit velocity. His matchup tonight is against Mariners righty Bryan Woo who has been much more prone to allowing home runs to lefties in his career with a 1.47 HR to 9 innings ratio.
Rice has been crushing right-handed pitching this season with 7 homers already and a .306 expected batting average. It's not the best home run hitting ballpark in Seattle tonight, but surprisingly he would have 1 extra homer this season if he played every single game there. I think his odds to homer tonight are fantastic!
3. Brent Rooker to Hit a Home Run Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
The 3rd player I think is a great bet for a home run is Brent Rooker. His matchup looks amazing vs Dodgers starter Landon Knack who has allowed a lot of power to right-handed hitters thus far with a career 1.86 HR per 9 innings ratio and the Dodgers park is a great ballpark for homers. Knack primarily throws a 4-seam fastball and 2 breaking pitches (Knuckle-Curve and Slider).
Rooker is a hitter who has great power vs 4-seams and breaking pitches and barrels them up at a high rate. Since last season, Rooker has 12 homers against righty 4-seam fastballs and 14 homers against righty breaking pitches. Rooker has been making great contact the past week or so with 8 of his last 10 batted balls hit 93+ MPH exit velocity. The matchup tonight should be right up his alley so I think he goes yard!
4. Salvador Perez to Hit a Home Run Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
The last player I am looking at for a homer is Royals catcher Salvador Perez. Salvy has been extremely unlucky this season when it comes to homers, as he has only hit two on the year. Luckily for us, his matchup is great and he's playing in a great ballpark for right-handed hitters. If he had played every game in Houston this season, he would have seven homers vs. his current total of two.
He will see Astros lefty Framber Valdez tonight. Salvy is crushing lefties on the season with a .294 expected batting average and .318 expected iso, and he has had great success vs. Valdez' pitch mix (vs. lefties) in his career (sinker, curveball, changeup). 13 of Salvy's 20 batted balls vs. lefties this season have been hit 95+ MPH exit velocity, and 9 of those hit over 100+ MPH. He is well overdue for a HR, and I think tonight is his night to go yard.
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