Utah State vs. UCLA Best Bets, Predictions, Latest March Madness Odds for NCAA Tournament Round of 64
The UCLA Bruins aim to dodge an early-round upset as they face the Utah State Aggies in one of Thursday’s final matchups. Can Tyler Bilodeau help keep the Bruins steady against a streaky Utah State squad? Christian Odjakjian is backing the favorites in his Utah State vs. UCLA betting pick for Thursday, March 20.
Christian Odjakjian - March 20, 2025, 8:43 PM EDT
6 minUpdated March 20th, 8:47 EDT
Utah State vs. UCLA Best Bets, Predictions, Latest March Madness Odds for NCAA Tournament Round of 64
The No. 7 seed UCLA Bruins will face the No. 10 seed Utah State Aggies on Thursday night at Rupp Arena in Lexington, Kentucky in a First Round clash.
Utah State, led by first-year head coach Jerrod Calhoun, is making its third consecutive NCAA Tournament appearance. The Aggies have been impressive offensively, thanks to strong ball movement and efficient scoring. With Ian Martinez and Mason Falslev leading the charge, Utah State ranks 17th in assist rate and 17th in offensive efficiency, according to KenPom.
However, the Aggies have stumbled down the stretch, dropping three of their last five games—each by double digits. The primary concern? Defense. Utah State ranks 151st in defensive efficiency, and Calhoun has leaned heavily on a 2-3 zone, using it on twice as many possessions as man-to-man this season. Whether that zone can hold up against UCLA’s balanced attack remains to be seen.
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Utah State vs. UCLA Odds
- Point Spread: Utah State Aggies +5 (+100); UCLA Bruins -5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Utah State Aggies +205; UCLA Bruins -235
- Game Totals: Over 144.5 (-105); Under 144.5 (-110)
Utah State vs. UCLA Date, Time, and Where To Watch
- Date: March 20, 2025
- Time: 9:25 pm ET
- Where To Watch: TNT
Click here for latest Utah State vs. UCLA Odds
Team Profiles
UCLA Bruins
Under head coach Mick Cronin, the Bruins have demonstrated resilience this season. After a challenging start, they secured seven consecutive victories to stabilize their campaign. Known for their defensive prowess, UCLA ranks 17th nationally in defensive efficiency and 7th in turnover rate. Offensively, they are led by forward Tyler Bilodeau, with contributions from Eric Dailey and Sebastian Mack. The Bruins prefer a deliberate pace, ranking 301st in tempo, and utilize a deep rotation, often playing up to 11 players.
Utah State Aggies
The Aggies, under first-year head coach Jerrod Calhoun, have had a commendable season, earning their third consecutive NCAA Tournament appearance. Their offense is efficient, ranking 17th nationally, and emphasizes ball movement, standing 17th in assist rate. However, they have shown defensive vulnerabilities, ranking 151st in defensive efficiency. Key players include Ian Martinez and Mason Falslev, who lead the team in scoring and assists. Utah State primarily employs a 2-3 zone defense, having played twice as many possessions in zone as in man-to-man this season.
Utah State vs. UCLA Prediction
UCLA had a rough start to 2025, losing four straight games, but rebounded with seven straight wins to get back on track. The Bruins just lost by 16 to Wisconsin (who shot 19-for-32 from deep) in the Big Ten quarterfinals, but aside from a bad home loss to Minnesota on Feb. 18, they’ve played really solid basketball over the past couple of months.
As expected from a Mick Cronin team, they’re defensive-minded (17th in KenPom’s defensive rankings, 7th in turnover rate) and slow-paced (301st in tempo). Cronin has a deep bench, often playing up to 11 guys. UCLA’s offense hasn’t always been inspiring this season, yet they surprisingly rank 35th nationally in efficiency. Do-it-all forward Tyler Bilodeau leads this balanced Bruins squad, which also moves the ball well (24th in assist rate). 6-8 forward Eric Dailey and combo guard Sebastian Mack are the only other double-digit scorers.
The key question in this matchup: How will UCLA fare against this Utah State’s zone? The Bruins haven't seen much zone this year but personel wise I think they have what it takes to score effectively here. For one, UCLA thrives on midrange shots, and guys like Bilodeau and Dailey can find success in the soft spots of the zone. Plus, if Cronin doesn’t like the look, he has the depth to tinker with lineups constantly throughout the game as he often does.
Defensively, UCLA’s length and ball pressure make them elite. While Falslev and Martinez are good players, they don’t strike me as the type of game-breaking stars needed to take down a team like this. UCLA’s four losses in the past two months all came against teams with a standout performer (Jakucionis for Illinois, Garcia for Minnesota, Smith/TKR for Purdue, and Tonje for Wisconsin). Utah State hasn’t looked great in recent weeks, and I’m not scared by a bad defensive team that relies on a zone.
Before missing the Tournament last year, Cronin led UCLA to a Final Four and two Sweet 16s in the three seasons prior. Sure, he doesn’t have Jaime Jaquez anymore, but he’s still one of the best coaches in the country, and I trust him more than Calhoun, who is making his first NCAA Tournament appearance as a head coach.
Give me the deeper team, from the better league, with the more expereinced coach to get this one done and cover the number.
Utah State vs. UCLA Pick
- Pick: UCLA -5.5 (-110) Get oddschecker+ right now for just $0.99 per month. Don't miss out on this first month deal!
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