Chidi Njokuani vs. Albert Duraev Prediction: How Long Will This Fight Go at UFC on ESPN 43?

Chidi Njokuani vs. Albert Duraev Prediction: How Long Will This Fight Go at UFC on ESPN 43?

Tomorrow's UFC card features a fascinating matchup between two highly skilled fighters in the Middleweight division. Chidi Njokuani will face Albert Duraev in a classic striker versus grappler matchup. Njokuani is a -155 favorite, but I'm not worried about who wins, just when.

Chidi Njokuani vs. Albert Duraev Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

When: March 25, 2023

Time: 7:00 PM EDT

Where: AT&T Center, San Antonio, TX

Where to Watch: ESPN, ESPN+

Click here for Njokuani vs. Duraev odds

Chidi Njokuani vs. Albert Duraev Prediction

Njokuani joined the UFC in 2022 after spending some time in Bellator and winning a contract on Dana White's Contender Series with a knockout win, which has become the norm. He started his UFC run with back-to-back first-round knockouts, but his streak ended in September 2022 when he was knocked out himself by Gregory Rodrigues.

Njokuani is an excellent kickboxer, and his 74% striking accuracy in the UFC proves that. With 14 knockouts to his name, Njokuani is a powerful and accurate striker who tends to start fast in his fights. His last four wins have come by knockout, showing the improvement in his already-deadly boxing skills.

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However, Njokuani's grappling skills are still raw, which could be an issue against Duraev, a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu fighter with nine submissions in his career. If the fight goes to the ground, Njokuani will be at a significant disadvantage. Njokuani has minimal takedown defense and struggles on his back, making him a fish out of water against a skilled ground fighter like Duraev.

Albert Duraev had an excellent debut, outworking Roman Kopylov, but fell to Joaquin Buckley in a doctor stoppage after his eye swelled shut and was deemed unfit to continue. Duraev has finished 12 of his 15 wins with nine submissions and three knockouts to his name. However, all four of his losses have come by knockout or TKO, which is a testament to his striking defense, which is subpar, and was on display in his last fight against Buckley.

Duraev's wrestling is his most significant strength, with persistent and well-timed takedowns being his bread and butter. He uses his top pressure well on the mat, searching for submission opportunities. However, Duraev's striking is basic, his striking defense is porous, and his chin is fragile, as he was outclassed on the feet in his last fight against a high-level striker.

Therefore, this fight will likely depend on whether Njokuani can keep the fight standing or if Duraev can take it to the ground. If this fight stays on the feet, Njokuani should be able to land his powerful strikes and knock Duraev out early. However, if Duraev can get ahold of Njokuani and take him to the ground, he should be able to submit him swiftly.

Given Njokuani's raw grappling skills and Duraev's impressive submission game, it seems more likely that Duraev will look to take this fight to the ground. Njokuani knows this and will be aware of the takedown attempts, and he could catch Duraev clean on a takedown entry, which we have seen time and time again in striker/grappler matchups.

Considering these factors, the pick for this fight is the fight to go under 1.5 rounds. With both fighters having finishing upsides and glaring weaknesses that can be exploited, this fight should end in a finish quickly. Duraev by submission has a sneaky value at +370, which is much higher odds than Njokuani by knockout, but the official bet is the under.

Chidi Njokuani vs. Albert Duraev Pick

Pick: Duraev/Njokuani Under 1.5 Rounds @ (-112) Bet $100 to collect $189 FanDuel has the best odds; click here to bet