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4 AFC win totals that look like absolute locks

The new NFL season is looming on the horizon and we're all looking forward to the return of football. We've cast an eye over each team's expected win totals in the NFC and AFC to find four teams in each who we feel offer great value.

AFC East:

Miami Dolphins – Under 5 Wins (-110)

Certainly one of the more popular leans most people have this year is the under season win total on the Dolphins…. And I’m not going to go against the masses on this one.

Last year the Dolphins went 7-9, and since then their divisional rivals have improved a great deal and although the Pats haven’t, they’re still notably better than Miami.

With Fitzmagic and Rosen as their quarterback options I don’t hold the most faith in them to get the ball moving effectively, especially given the limited receiving core at their disposal.

AFC South:

Houston Texans – Over 8.5 Wins (+108)

The Texans’ division has notably improved from last year. The Colts appear to be on a charge, the Jags couldn’t do much worse if they tried and the Titans will likely be in that 7-9 to 9-7 range. Not only has their division got more difficult, but their out of division games aren’t as favorable either.

With this being said however, the Texans were an 11-5 team last year and one that let themselves down massively in the playoffs. There may be a slight drop-off due to strength of schedule, but at their core they’re still a ferocious team on offense, with a great defence. It seems people could be sleeping on them here but they’re way too strong of a team to be considered as anything but a plus .500 team.

AFC West:

Kansas City Chiefs – Over 10 Wins (-110)

KC were outstanding last year, there performances had the football world talking and money coming in on them almost each and every week. They went 12-4 and had a decent playoff run, albeit ending short of where they’d have wanted to end up.

Their division will still be a two team race between them and the Chargers, with the Broncos looking like a clear sub .500 team and the Raiders still in a transitional phase that more than likely won’t see instant results.

The Chiefs’ schedule is up against a few tough teams, but largely they hold the home advantage in their more challenging games. Should their offense be anywhere near as dangerous as it was last year, they should easily eclipses a 10 win season again.

AFC North:

Pittsburgh Steelers – Under 9 Wins (+100)

This has to be the end for the Steelers and their current generation of players. Bell’s gone, Brown’s out and Big Ben’s on his last legs. They missed the playoffs last season and I don’t see them getting in this year either.

Their divisional was tough last season and the Browns look to have improved yet again. Pittsburgh’s depleted offensive options will most probably have their movement of the ball severely lacking to their previous years. JuJu will probably look good, but more than likely he won’t be the man to step-up and give the team the touchdowns they’ll be missing. Ben had an outstanding season last year, and it’s going to be extremely difficult for him to reproduce those number.

I think this could be the beginning of the end for the Steelers this year, I’ve got them going under 9 wins and potentially finishing third in their division.

By Christian Broughton

Article Author


A former sportsbook trader with a passion for mixed martial arts. If there is value to be found then Christian is the man to find it.


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