Thursday Night Football Prediction and Picks: Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams

Want to know how to bet the Thursday Night Football matchup between the Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams? NFL expert Ben Gretch has you covered.
Ben Gretch
Wed, October 6, 7:30 PM EDT

Thursday Night Football Prediction and Picks: Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams

Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams Start Time, Where To Watch, and Odds

Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams Key Stats

The lowest combined total for any Rams or Seahawks game so far this year is 44.

Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams Betting Preview

Thursday night brings us a matchup of two explosive passing games, with a pretty funny line given last week’s results. In Week 4, Seattle went into San Francisco as underdogs and beat the 49ers outright pretty handily, while the Rams got boat raced by the Cardinals as home favorites.

But the market isn’t fooled, and the Rams are short-week favorites on the road in Seattle. I’d had the same initial inclination, thinking the Rams would make a nice underdog bet, but I can’t say this is a line I like. These two teams and coaches know each other well, and typically play competitive games. Seattle can definitely win at home, and giving points is a different ballgame than maybe getting plus money to take the Rams.

But the game total is intriguing at 54.5. Both the Rams and Seahawks have played high-scoring games almost exclusively so far this year, in part because both defenses have ranked in the bottom 10 in success rate allowed to both the run and the pass, per Sharp Football Stats. But the total accounts for that, and it’s a big number. Seattle’s games have totaled 44, 63, 47, and 49 points, while the Rams’ have totaled 48, 51, 58, and 57. I list those because while they were all games that featured plenty of points, only three of eight of those games went over this number, and the Rams’ past two games eclipsed it only barely.

Our default on a line this high should be to look for reasons to play the under, and one interesting note about these defenses is both have been in the top 10 in terms of minimizing explosive plays in the passing game. So while their success rate allowed is bad, they’ve mostly forced teams to build drives rather than score quickly. The offenses of these teams meanwhile have thrived in that department so far this year — Seattle ranks fifth and the Rams rank seventh in terms of explosive passing plays.

Still, we kind of expect that to continue, right? The Rams have looked great with Matthew Stafford under center, and DeSean Jackson has played more over the past two weeks than the first two, and he’s added even more of an explosive element to a wide receiver group that already featured the red hot Cooper Kupp. Seattle meanwhile boasts one of the best deep-ball passers in the NFL and a wideout tandem that can crush down the field. Seattle may also be without starting running back Chris Carson, who hasn’t practiced this week, weakening any potential for them to have a random run-heavy game.

The Rams have also played fast, averaging the quickest time to snap in neutral situations in the NFL, per Football Outsiders. The Seahawks will slow things down a bit — they rank 18th in that regard.

Ultimately, I’m going with the under here, because these teams know each other well, and I think while we’ll see points, things might move a little slower than they seem to get to such a high number. The past four times these teams have played, they’ve gone under this number each time, and the game total wasn’t higher than 40 in three of them. Of course, those games featured Jared Goff, not Stafford.

Also of note is the last time these teams played a shootout. That was a Thursday night game, in Seattle, in Week 5, back in 2019, which the Rams won 30-29. I’m playing the percentages, but if history repeats itself in Week 5, don’t say I didn’t warn you.

Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams Pick

Ben Gretch
@YardsPerGretch
Ben knows his football. A fantasy football expert who was most recently seen at CBS Sports, he'll be helping bettors find value ahead in the NFL with OddsChecker.
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