Chargers vs. Giants Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest NFL Odds for Week 4
The New York Giants have officially made the QB change, a bit earlier than people expected. Can Jaxson Dart save the Giants season after an 0-3 start, or will the struggles continue in his starting debut against Justin Herbert and the Chargers? Let's take a look at our Chargers vs. Giants prediction and best betting pick for Sunday, September 28th.
OC Staff - September 28, 2025, 8:45 AM EDT
6 Minute ReadChargers vs. Giants Prediction: Can Jaxson Dart, Giants Pull Upset in NFL Debut?
The New York Giants are turning the page at quarterback, handing the reins to rookie Jaxson Dart in what will be his first NFL start. After a winless 0-3 start and last week’s embarrassing showing against the Kansas City Chiefs, head coach Brian Daboll made the decision to bench veteran Russell Wilson in hopes of jumpstarting the offense. Dart, a rookie out of Ole Miss who the Giants aggressively traded up for in April, now gets the spotlight as he tries to spark life into a struggling unit that has managed little consistency through three games.
The timing of his debut couldn’t be much tougher, as the undefeated Los Angeles Chargers come to town. Justin Herbert has looked every bit the superstar so far in 2025, finally finding a rhythm with Greg Roman's offense. The Chargers are 3-0, including a gritty late win over division rival Denver last week, and their balance of explosive passing and timely defense has them looking like one of the AFC’s most dangerous teams. Herbert has spread the ball around effectively, limiting turnovers while capitalizing on big-play opportunities to Quentin Johnston and others.
With the Giants sitting as +6 underdogs, the storyline centers on whether Dart can rise to the occasion or if Herbert and the Chargers will simply overwhelm New York. The rookie has a big arm and mobility, but against a fast and aggressive defense, mistakes could pile up quickly. For the Giants to have a chance, they’ll need to protect Dart and find ways to slow Herbert’s high-powered attack. Otherwise, Sunday could serve as a harsh welcome to the NFL for the Giants’ new signal-caller.
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Chargers vs. Giants Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Sunday, September 28, 2025
- Time: 1:00 PM ET
- How to Watch: CBS
Chargers vs. Giants Odds
Our AI model highlights a notable opportunity on the New York Giants +6.0 in their Week 4 clash against the Los Angeles Chargers. The model projects a robust 58.2% chance for the Giants to cover this spread, starkly contrasting with the market's implied probability of just 51.9%. This substantial 6.2% probability edge translates into an impressive 12.0% positive expected value for this wager. This analytical advantage likely stems from the Chargers' potentially inflated market perception; despite ranking 1st in passing yards, their 14th-ranked points per game suggests an offense that often stalls, failing to consistently convert yardage into explosive scoring needed to cover larger spreads.
Conversely, the Giants, though 27th in scoring, surprisingly rank 8th in passing yards, indicating an ability to move the ball, and their 11th-ranked sacks per game could be disruptive enough to keep this contest surprisingly close against a Chargers team that struggles to run the ball, ranking 24th. This points to a game much tighter than the market currently implies, favoring the Giants to stay within the touchdown margin.
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Chargers vs. Giants Prediction
The narrative for the Giants begins and likely ends with young signal-caller Jaxson Dart facing what can only be described as a trial by fire. Our model projects Dart for a modest 15 completions on 24 attempts, accumulating just 144.9 passing yards and a troubling 0.6 interceptions. This already conservative projection is exacerbated by the fact that Dart has "No recent games vs. Top 10 defenses," a glaring hole in his resume as he prepares to face the Chargers, who boast the league's 3rd-ranked pass defense by QB Rating Allowed.
This unit, while only 16th in sacks, has proven stifling, systematically limiting opposing passers. This stark reality is reflected in the positive EV prop identified by our model: Under 192.5 Passing Yards for Dart at -110 odds, with a remarkable 40.9% EV. This isn't just an unfavorable matchup; it's a profound mismatch that suggests the Chargers' elite secondary is expected to utterly dominate the Giants' passing attack, likely forcing Dart into uncomfortable situations and potentially game-altering mistakes.
Amidst the expected aerial struggles for the Giants, a glimmer of individual potential emerges in rookie wide receiver Malik Nabers. Despite his quarterback's daunting task against the league's third-best pass defense, Nabers is projected for a respectable 5.9 receptions and 73.4 receiving yards. What's truly intriguing is the model's finding of a positive EV prop on Over 65.5 Receiving Yards for Nabers at -110 odds, showing a 10.9% EV. This creates a fascinating dynamic: while the overall passing game led by Dart is predicted to flounder, Nabers, with his undeniable talent, might still command a significant target share and demonstrate an ability to create separation even against an elite unit. This suggests he could be the primary, if not sole, outlet for Dart, potentially accumulating his yardage out of sheer volume or highlight-reel plays, even as the Chargers' defense otherwise smothers the Giants' offensive efforts.
On the opposite sideline, the Chargers' prolific quarterback Justin Herbert faces a different, yet significant, challenge. Projected for a robust 24 completions on 36 attempts and 272.2 passing yards, Herbert’s individual output against an average Giants pass defense (17th in QB Rating Allowed) looks promising. However, the Giants' pass rush, ranked 11th in the league in sacks, is far from average and poses a credible threat. Herbert's "Historical Splits vs Top-10 Pass D" reveal a slight dip in production, averaging 219.6 passing yards and a 93.2 Passer Rating over 5 games against such units.
While the Giants' pass defense as a whole isn't top-10, their strong pass rush unit could replicate some of that pressure. Herbert's ability to quickly diagnose and deliver the ball, leveraging his weapons like Ladd McConkey (projected 5.6 Rec, 72.4 Yds, with a positive EV on his 'Over' prop), will be paramount. Should the Giants' pass rush consistently disrupt Herbert's rhythm, it could throw a wrench into an otherwise efficient Chargers offensive attack, forcing them to rely more on their ground game – which faces a Giants run defense ranked 28th.
In summation, while Justin Herbert's battle against the Giants' pass rush will be critical, the most decisive factor in this contest will undoubtedly be Jaxson Dart's capacity to simply survive, let alone produce, against the Los Angeles Chargers' elite 3rd-ranked pass defense. The significant negative EV on his passing yards prop, coupled with his inexperience against top units, points to this matchup as the game-defining challenge that will dictate the Giants' offensive ceiling and ultimately, their fate.
Chargers vs. Giants Pick
- Pick: New York Giants +6 (-105) Click here to get these best odds on DraftKings Sportsbook
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