Ravens vs. Chiefs Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest NFL Odds for Week 4
The Baltimore Ravens have been explosive on offense all year, but have come up short in shootouts with both the Lions and Bills. Can they get their lick back in Kansas City against the weaker Chiefs offense today? Let's take a look at our Ravens vs. Chiefs prediction and best betting pick for September 28th.
OC Staff - September 28, 2025, 10:00 AM EDT
6 Minute ReadRavens vs. Chiefs Prediction: Can Lamar Jackson, Ravens Bounce Back in Kansas City AFC Showdown?
The Baltimore Ravens enter Week 4 with a surprising 1-2 record, not the start most expected from one of the league’s most dynamic offenses. Both losses came in close shootouts against the Bills and Lions — games Baltimore led in the second half before defensive lapses proved costly. Lamar Jackson has kept the offense moving with big plays through the air and on the ground, but the defense has yet to match that production, leaving the Ravens in need of a complete performance if they want to reassert themselves as AFC contenders.
Kansas City has faced similar early-season turbulence. The Chiefs also sit at 1-2, though Patrick Mahomes and company got back in the win column last Sunday night against the Giants. Even with that victory, questions remain about Kansas City’s offense. Multiple wide receivers are sidelined, the run game has been ineffective, and Mahomes has been forced to carry the load against defenses that can key in on him. A return to Arrowhead should provide a boost, but the Chiefs still look like a work in progress compared to years past.
Oddsmakers have Baltimore pegged as a slim -2.5 favorite on the road, a nod to both Jackson’s ability to keep games explosive and Kansas City’s shaky supporting cast. If the Ravens can finally pair defensive discipline with their offensive firepower, they could get back above .500 with a statement win. For Mahomes and the Chiefs, this matchup offers a chance to prove that their early struggles are just growing pains — and that they remain the AFC’s team to beat.
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Ravens vs. Chiefs Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Sunday, September 28, 2025
- Time: 4:25 PM ET
- How to Watch: CBS
Ravens vs. Chiefs Odds
Our AI model flags a significant wagering opportunity on the Baltimore Ravens -2.5 for their Week 4 showdown against the Kansas City Chiefs. The model projects an impressive 57.0% probability for Baltimore to cover, a notable divergence from the market's implied 53.5%, yielding a compelling 3.5% probability edge and a robust 6.5% positive expected value on this wager. This strong analytical lean stems from Baltimore's top-ranked scoring offense, which, at first overall, is uniquely positioned to exploit Kansas City's defensive struggles against the run, ranking 18th in rushing yards allowed.
The Ravens' ground game, a respectable 12th in the league, should effectively control the tempo and consistently move the chains, further bolstered by their 6th best third-down conversion rate. Therefore, despite any perceived defensive weaknesses, Baltimore’s offensive dominance provides a clear pathway to covering this short spread against the Chiefs.
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Ravens vs. Chiefs Prediction
The most pivotal matchup to watch will be Lamar Jackson, the Ravens' dynamic dual-threat quarterback, as he tests the resolve of the Kansas City Chiefs' defense. Jackson’s unique blend of passing and rushing talent presents a formidable challenge, and his historical performance against top-tier defenses paints a compelling picture.
While the Chiefs' pass defense ranks a respectable 11th and their pass rush 16th, Jackson has historically thrived when facing elite passing units. In three games against Top-10 pass defenses, Jackson boasts an astounding 128.7 Passer Rating, throwing 7 touchdowns with zero interceptions, averaging 231.3 passing yards per game. This suggests that even a solid pass defense like Kansas City's might struggle to contain his aerial assault.
Crucially, Jackson's rushing ability cannot be understated. He averages 52.4 rushing yards per game and is projected for 44.5 in this contest. The Chiefs' run defense, ranked 14th in rush yards allowed per carry, is middle-of-the-pack. This means there's a tangible opportunity for Jackson to exploit rushing lanes, especially if Kansas City over-commits to stopping Derrick Henry, who is projected for a substantial 79.0 rushing yards. The ability of the Chiefs' defense to simultaneously contain Jackson's arm, track his elusive legs, and account for Henry's power will dictate the Ravens' offensive success. If Jackson can replicate his historical efficiency through the air while also eating up yards on the ground, he will dictate the pace and rhythm of the game.
On the other side of the ball, the Kansas City Chiefs' offensive engine, Patrick Mahomes, appears poised to exploit a notable weakness in the Baltimore Ravens' defense. The Ravens rank a disappointing 20th against the pass (by QB rating allowed) and possess one of the league's weakest pass rushes, coming in at 29th.
This combination presents a significant opportunity for Mahomes to operate with extended time in the pocket and pick apart the secondary. Mahomes, projected for 242.8 passing yards, is further bolstered by our model finding positive EV on him exceeding this total, with a 2.0% edge on his Over 240.5 Passing Yards prop. This data-backed conclusion strongly suggests the conditions are ripe for him to have a productive day through the air.
The primary beneficiary of Mahomes' anticipated success will undoubtedly be tight end Travis Kelce. Kelce, projected for 4.4 receptions and 42.5 receiving yards, stands out with a particularly strong positive EV prop of 4.8% on his Over 40.5 Receiving Yards. This isn't just about his talent; it's a direct reflection of the Ravens' defensive vulnerabilities. The lack of consistent pressure from Baltimore's 29th-ranked pass rush could grant Mahomes extra seconds, allowing Kelce to find soft spots in the zone or create separation against man coverage. In crucial situations, Mahomes’ connection with Kelce is the Chiefs' bread and butter, and against a struggling Ravens pass defense, this duo could be virtually unstoppable.
While both quarterbacks face intriguing defensive challenges, the most decisive factor in this contest will likely hinge on Lamar Jackson's ability to dismantle the Chiefs' defense. His historical efficiency against strong pass defenses, combined with his projected rushing impact against a middling run defense, gives the Ravens a multi-faceted offensive weapon that few teams can truly contain. If Jackson can control the game with both his arm and his legs, forcing Kansas City to play catch-up, the Ravens will hold a significant advantage.
Ravens vs. Chiefs Pick
- Pick: Baltimore Ravens -2.5 (-110) Click here to get these best odds on DraftKings Sportsbook
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