Jets vs. Patriots Prediction: Can Jets Limit Drake Maye, Patriots on Thursday Night Football?
The Jets and Pats will meet on Thursday Night Football, with the two AFC East foes heading in opposite directions. Can the Jets keep it close with Drake Maye, Patriots on TNF? McBets is targeting the underdog in his Jets vs. Patriots prediction for November 13th.
McBets - November 13, 2025, 6:55 PM EST
4 Minute ReadJets vs. Patriots Prediction: Backing Underdog Jets on TNF
It’s Jets–Patriots at Gillette Stadium today, and while New England enters riding a seven-game winning streak, the value sits squarely with the double-digit underdog. I’m backing the Jets in a matchup that should be far tighter than the market expects.
Let’s get one thing out of the way — the Jets offense is rough. Justin Fields attempted only 11 passes last week, and the Jets posted one of the lowest pass-rate-over-expected marks of the entire season. Without Garrett Wilson, New York’s game plan will once again be run-heavy.
Normally, that would be a problem against a Patriots defense that funnels opponents into the air, ranking top-10 against the run and bottom-five against the pass. But the Jets aren’t trying to win because of their offense today — they’re trying to survive the pace of the game, shorten possessions, and force New England to win methodically. And that’s where this number becomes too big.
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Jets vs. Patriots Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Thursday, November 13, 2025
- Time: 8:15 PM ET
- How to Watch: Amazon Prime Video
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Jets vs. Patriots Prediction - Thursday Night Football
New England’s offense has undeniably improved with Drake Maye ranking top-five in EPA/dropback. His chemistry with Stefon Diggs is real, and TreVeyon Henderson has given the run game juice. But last week’s explosion on the scoreboard was misleading — the Patriots scored three touchdowns of 55+ yards, while their expected points sat at only 20. That level of explosiveness rarely hits twice.
And now they face a Jets defense that — despite trading away Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams — has played with a spark the last two weeks. Quincy Williams regained his form after being benched, Jeremy Chinn has stabilized the middle of the field, and the coaching staff has simplified the scheme for an overhauled unit. The Jets have quietly looked like a top-15 defense again, albeit against weaker opponents.
But this matchup is the perfect setup for them. Both teams run the ball at top-six rates, and both play at bottom-eight neutral pace. That means long possessions, a running clock, and far fewer drives than a normal game. When you’re grabbing two full touchdowns in a projected slog, that’s value by itself.
New England also comes in banged up at running back, with Rhamondre Stevenson out and two backups questionable. If the Patriots are forced into a one-dimensional pass-heavy script, the Jets can sit back in their Cover-3 shell and force Maye into longer drives. That plays directly into the underdog’s hands.
It’s also hard to ignore the historical trends. Inside the division, double-digit road dogs are 17-10 ATS (63%) in the AFC East, and late-season double-digit dogs facing teams who have been covering at a high rate are 48-29 ATS (62%) over the last two decades. That’s exactly the spot the Jets fall into today.
Even in a miserable season, New York has only lost by more than 10 points twice — and one of those games was a misleading box score where they actually had more first downs than Dallas. This Jets team fights, even when they’re ugly, and this matchup sets up perfectly to shorten the game and make it messy.
The Patriots should win — but everything about this spot screams “too many points.”
Jets vs. Patriots Pick
- 1.5 Unit Pick: Jets +14 (-140) Check out these best odds on Bet365 Sportsbook
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