Dolphins vs. Steelers Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest NFL Odds for Monday Night Football
The Miami Dolphins will hope to upset the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday Night Football as they try to continue their 4-game win streak. Can Tua Tagovailoa continue his improved play on MNF? Let's take a look at this Dolphins vs. Steelers prediction for December 15th.
OC Staff - December 15, 2025, 11:00 AM EST
4 Minute ReadDolphins vs. Steelers Prediction: Can Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins Keep Win Streak Alive on MNF?
As Monday Night Football descends upon Pittsburgh, we're set for a clash of playoff aspirations where every down carries significant weight. The Miami Dolphins, battling at 6-7 and clinging to the #10 spot in the AFC despite a four-game win streak, journey to face the Pittsburgh Steelers, who at 7-6 hold the #4 seed in the conference, albeit with a more modest one-game winning streak.
With Pittsburgh boasting a 4-3 home record against Miami's 2-4 road struggles, the stage is set for pivotal individual matchups that will ultimately dictate the narrative of this crucial contest.
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Dolphins vs. Steelers Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Monday, December 15, 2025
- Time: 8:20 PM ET
- How to Watch: NBC
Dolphins vs. Steelers Odds
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Dolphins vs. Steelers Prediction
The Dolphins' hopes of extending their winning ways will largely hinge on quarterback Tua Tagovailoa's ability to navigate Pittsburgh's defense. Tagovailoa is projected for a modest 197.7 passing yards, completing 19 of 28 attempts with 0.6 interceptions. The Steelers' defense, while ranked 16th in QB Rating Allowed, boasts a formidable pass rush, ranking 7th in sacks. This pressure could be a significant factor. Historically, Tagovailoa has shown a concerning trend against top-tier pass defenses. In seven career games against units ranked in the top 10, his passer rating plummets to 70.9, averaging a mere 186.0 passing yards per game, and a stark 0.6 TD:INT ratio (8 touchdowns to 13 interceptions). While the Steelers aren't a top-10 pass defense by overall QB Rating Allowed, their elite pass rush could emulate the conditions that have historically troubled Tua.
Interestingly, despite these historical struggles, our model finds a solid opportunity with positive expected value (EV: 4.8%) on Tagovailoa exceeding his passing yards projection, specifically for 'Over 197.718 Passing Yards' at 1.909 ( -110) odds. This suggests that the market might be overcorrecting for his past performances or underestimating his recent form against a non-elite secondary, despite the formidable pass rush. How Tua handles the heat will be the epicenter of Miami's offensive success.
On the other side of the ball, the Pittsburgh Steelers have a golden opportunity to establish their ground game through running back Jaylen Warren. Warren is projected for 13.4 carries and 54.4 rushing yards. This matchup is particularly enticing for Pittsburgh as they face a Miami Dolphins run defense that ranks a dismal 28th in rush yards allowed per carry. This glaring weakness in Miami's defense provides the Steelers with a clear path to control the clock, sustain drives, and take pressure off Aaron Rodgers, especially if the passing game isn't immediately clicking.
Given this favorable matchup against a bottom-tier run defense, our model identifies a solid opportunity with positive expected value (EV: 4.6%) on Warren surpassing his rushing yardage projection, 'Over 54.4464 Rushing Yards' at 1.909 (-110) odds. Exploiting this defensive vulnerability will be a cornerstone of the Steelers' offensive strategy, potentially opening up play-action opportunities for Rodgers later in the game.
Aaron Rodgers, projected for 21 completions on 32 attempts, 221.5 passing yards, and just 0.5 interceptions, finds himself in a more favorable passing matchup compared to his counterpart. The Dolphins' pass defense ranks 25th in QB Rating Allowed, indicating a significant area of vulnerability. While Rodgers' historical splits against top-10 pass defenses (81.5 Passer Rating, 199.4 YPG over 10 games) suggest he can be contained by elite units, Miami's secondary falls well short of that standard. Their pass rush, while respectable at 14th in sacks, isn't consistently dominant enough to completely overshadow their struggles in coverage.
This matchup presents a prime opportunity for Rodgers to exploit a weaker secondary and lead the Steelers' offense effectively. Our model highlights a solid opportunity here, with positive expected value (EV: 4.4%) on Rodgers surpassing his passing yardage projection, 'Over 221.484 Passing Yards' at 1.909 (-110) odds. If the Steelers can establish Warren in the run game, Rodgers will likely have even more success attacking Miami's vulnerable pass defense, allowing him to orchestrate a rhythm that has been challenging at times this season.
Ultimately, the most decisive factor in this Monday Night Football showdown will be Tua Tagovailoa's performance under pressure against the Steelers' pass rush. While Miami has found ways to win recently, his historical struggles against stout defenses, combined with Pittsburgh's 7th-ranked pass rush, create a significant potential choke point for the Dolphins' offense. If Tua can defy his historical trends and navigate the pressure, Miami has a chance; otherwise, Pittsburgh's home field advantage and ability to exploit the Dolphins' defensive weaknesses should prevail.
Dolphins vs. Steelers Pick
- Pick: Dolphins +3 (-110) Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
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