Bengals vs. Dolphins Prediction: Will Cincinnati Overwhelm Quinn Ewers, Dolphins in First Career Start?
The Cincinnati Bengals will look to finish the season on a high note after getting eliminated from the playoffs and shut out by the Ravens last week. Can Joe Burrow and co. bounce back against the floundering Dolphins and Quinn Ewers on Sunday? Let's take a look at this Bengals vs. Dolphins prediction for Week 16.
OC Staff - December 21, 2025, 11:15 AM EST
4 Minute ReadBengals vs. Dolphins Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest NFL Odds for Week 16
As Sunday NFL football descends upon us, we brace for a battle of attrition rather than a marquee clash. The Cincinnati Bengals (4-10, #12 in conference), reeling from a two-game skid, trek to face the Miami Dolphins (6-8, #11 in conference), who are themselves on a one-game losing streak.
While Miami holds a respectable 4-3 home record, their overall struggles and Cincinnati's abysmal 2-5 road performance paint a picture of two desperate teams clinging to the faintest playoff hopes in a late-season stumble. This game won't just be about who wins, but which struggling unit can exploit the other's glaring weaknesses.
The narrative of this contest will undoubtedly be sculpted by a few pivotal individual battles.
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Bengals vs. Dolphins Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Sunday, December 21, 2025
- Time: 1:00 PM ET
- How to Watch: CBS
Bengals vs. Dolphins Odds
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Bengals vs. Dolphins Prediction
The centerpiece of any Bengals game is Joe Burrow, and this week presents a fascinating dichotomy. On one hand, Burrow faces a Miami Dolphins pass defense that ranks a dismal 28th in QB Rating Allowed. Logic dictates this should be a field day for the signal-caller, especially considering his historical pedigree; against Top-10 Pass Defenses, Burrow has averaged a staggering 307.6 passing yards per game over 5 contests, maintaining a solid 93.8 Passer Rating with a 3.0 TD:INT ratio. His elite receiving option, Ja'Marr Chase, is projected for a robust 7.4 receptions and 91.5 receiving yards, and our model identifies a significant edge on his 'Over 91.5 receiving yards' prop at 1.87 (-115) odds (EV: 4.7%). This suggests a strong expectation for the Burrow-Chase connection to thrive against Miami's struggling secondary.
However, a confounding element emerges from our analytical model: despite the favorable matchup, it finds a significant edge on Burrow's 'Under 242.9 passing yards' prop at 1.909 (-110) odds (EV: 10.3%). This seemingly contradictory insight forces us to consider external factors. Perhaps the model anticipates a slower game script, a more conservative play-calling approach, or even an increased commitment to the run game from Cincinnati, knowing Miami's run defense is also a major liability (ranked 27th in Rush Yds/Carry). If the Bengals establish the run, it could reduce Burrow's overall passing volume, even if his efficiency remains high. This clash of perceived advantage versus statistical expectation will be a critical storyline.
On the other side of the ball, Miami's dynamic running back, De'Von Achane, presents another intriguing matchup. He is projected for 16.3 attempts and 82.5 rushing yards, and he’ll be running straight into the league's 31st-ranked run defense (by Rush Yds/Carry allowed). This is a monumental mismatch on paper; a talented, speedy back facing one of the weakest run-stopping units in the NFL. One would expect Achane to shred the Bengals' front seven and potentially post a career-day.
Yet, again, our model introduces a nuanced perspective, identifying a slight edge on Achane's 'Under 82.5 rushing yards' prop at 1.952 (-105) odds (EV: 0.8%). This small opportunity for an "Under" could stem from several factors: potential committee usage, game script favoring the pass if the Dolphins fall behind, or perhaps a slight overestimation of his workload against a defense that, despite its poor ranking, might manage to contain him just enough. The success, or lack thereof, of Achane against this vulnerable Bengals run defense will be paramount to Miami's offensive flow, potentially opening up play-action for their limited passing game.
The Dolphins' passing game, led by Quinn Ewers, presents a different kind of challenge. Ewers is projected for a modest 15 completions on 23 attempts, 156.2 passing yards, and 0.6 interceptions. While he faces a Bengals pass defense that, like Miami's, struggles mightily (ranked 29th in QB Rating Allowed), Ewers' own projections are remarkably low. He has no recent games against Top-10 pass defenses to draw from, indicating a lack of experience against premier units, which further suggests his baseline performance against even a weak defense might be capped.
His primary target, Jaylen Waddle, is projected for just 4.1 receptions and 55.7 receiving yards. These numbers against a bottom-tier pass defense highlight the potential ceiling of the Dolphins' aerial attack. The key question here isn't whether Ewers will dominate, but whether he can do enough to exploit Cincinnati's weaknesses and keep pace with a Bengals offense that, even with Burrow's 'Under' projection, is still expected to be more efficient. If Ewers cannot elevate his game against the 29th-ranked pass defense, Miami's offense could quickly become one-dimensional and predictable.
In conclusion, while the analytical models introduce fascinating counter-narratives, the ultimate deciding factor in this Sunday Night Football matchup will likely be the performance of Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase against the Dolphins' 28th-ranked pass defense. Despite the model hinting at an 'Under' for Burrow's yardage, the sheer offensive talent and historical performance against tougher defenses suggest he could still be highly efficient and deliver critical plays. Should Burrow effectively navigate Miami's secondary, it will likely dictate the pace and outcome, pushing the Bengals to a much-needed victory in a game defined by defensive vulnerabilities.
Bengals vs. Dolphins Pick
- Pick: Bengals -4 (-110) Check out these best odds at BetMGM Sportsbook
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