2025 John Deere Classic First Round Leader Picks: Will Ben Griffin Start Fast on Day 1?
Looking to bet the First Round Leader market at the 2025 John Deere Classic? Matt Mackay breaks down five golfers to target on Thursday, including Ben Griffin and Ryan Gerard, as they strive to take an early lead on Day 1 from TPC Deere Run.
Matt MacKay - July 2, 2025, 6:55 PM EDT
5 Minute Read2025 John Deere Classic First Round Leader Picks: Will Ben Griffin Start Fast on Day 1?
The 2025 John Deere Classic tees off on Thursday from TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Illinois. 156 golfers have made a trip to the Quad Cities, led by betting favorite, Ben Griffin, at +1600 odds. Other notable favorites include Jason Day (+2500), Denny McCarthy (+2500) and 2022 John Deere Classic winner, J.T. Poston, at +3300 odds.
TPC Deere Run is a par 71 that is 7,289 yards in length. Built on an old Arabian horse farm alongside the Rock River, close to the Mississippi River that borders Iowa and Illinois, golfers will encounter big elevation changes.
The fairways and greens are bentgrass, measuring 12.5 feet via Stimpmeter. Accuracy on approach is key, with greens measuring under 5,500 square feet, which is below the PGA Tour average. Minimal water hazards are present, replaced by doglegged fairways and sprawling sand bunkers flanking fairways and guarding greens.
Let's dive into the John Deere Classic First Round Leader betting market ahead of Round 1. Last week during the Rocket Classic, we nearly cashed Andrew Putnam's First Round Leader prop at 120-1 odds.
PGA handicapper Matt MacKay is back with five golfers worth targeting in the First Round Leader market before Thursday's opening round gets underway. Follow Matt's X account for more PGA betting analysis and free picks.
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2025 John Deere Classic First Round Leader Odds
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2025 JOHN DEERE CLASSIC DATE, TIME, AND WHERE TO WATCH
- Date: Thursday, July 3 - Sunday, July 6, 2025
- Time: 7:45 AM - 7:00 PM ET
- How to Watch: ESPN+, Golf Channel, CBS, Paramount+
2025 John Deere Classic First Round Leader
Ben Griffin (+3500) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best John Deere Classic odds
Ben Griffin is the betting favorite due to his consistent form that has yielded a pair of outright wins in 2025. Griffin ranks 17th in Round 1 scoring average and is coming off of a T5 finish during his debut at TPC Deere Run last year.
Ranked 13th total strokes gained, 32nd SG: Approach, 35th SG: Putting and 19th at finding greens in regulation. It's allowed Griffin to maintain his 15th-ranked scoring average (69.7), where he tends to start hot.
He's a great candidate to target as the First Round Leader betting favorite at +3500 odds.
Michael Thorbjornsen (+4500) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best John Deere Classic odds
One of the younger golfers in this field getting a lot of hype ahead of Thursday is Michael Thorbjornsen. The 23-year-old carded a runner-up finish at the 2024 John Deere Classic and is coming off of a strong T4 finish at the Rocket Classic.
Thorbjornsen is dominant off-the-tee, utilizing his powerful driver to rank 16th SG: Off-the-Tee and second total driving. Also fifth in driving distance, sixth at finding greens in regulation and eighth on approach shots from 200+ yards.
Thorbjornsen ranks 19th in Round 1 scoring average and sixth in birdie average, which bodes well for a low-scoring course like TPC Deere Run. Let's make sure to bet on his First Round Leader prop available at +4500 odds.
Ryan Gerard (+5500) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best John Deere Classic odds
This is my first time targeting Ryan Gerard in any capacity this season but he's got a few metrics that stand out from a First Round Leader betting context. The 25-year-old ranks 29th in total strokes gained, including 22nd SG: Approach and 35th total driving.
Gerard hasn't had strong outings in June but did card a T8 finish during the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow Club. He's 17th on approach shots from 200+ yards and eighth in Round 1 scoring average.
At 55-1 odds, Gerard warrants a small wager for a potentially massive payout in the First Round Leader prop betting market.
Sami Valimaki (+8000) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best John Deere Classic odds
If you notice a trend with these picks, it's targeting golfers who tend to start Round 1 with low scores. Sami Valimaki fits the bill.
The 26-year-old Finnish golfer ranks 10th in Round 1 scoring average this season (68.8) and is 35th total strokes gained putting. Most of this comes from his irons and putter. Valimaki is ranked 27th SG: Approach and eighth SG: Putting.
Accurate irons and a hot putter are a great recipe for a strong start to climb the leaderboard in Round 1. Let's bet on Valimaki at +8000 odds, especially after he started 10-under-par at the 2024 John Deere Classic.
Andrew Putnam (+8000) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best John Deere Classic odds
I'm running it back with Andrew Putnam again this week. He was two strokes shy of grabbing a share of the Round 1 lead at the Rocket Classic and is ranked fourth in Round 1 scoring average in 2025.
Putnam is a veteran on the PGA Tour, playing 14 years professionally, yet he's never cracked a top 40 finish in five appearances at TPC Deere Run. It feels like now is his time to accomplish this feat, especially sitting 83rd in the FedExCup standings. Putnam needs to finish 70th or higher to qualify for the FedEx St. Jude Championship in August.
The 36-year-old just carded a T8 finish at the Rocket Classic, following up a T6 finish at the RBC Canadian Open. Putnam ranks highly in many key metrics, like SG: Approach (36th), SG: Putting (13th) and sixth for driving accuracy.
He's 11th at finding greens in regulation at over 70 percent and also sits second in scrambling. 16th in sand save percentage will be beneficial for Putnam at TPC Deere Run, where he can lean on his tee-to-green accuracy and short game to convert birdies.
Let's back Putnam one more time to cash a First Round Leader prop at 80-1 odds.
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