2026 PGA Championship First Round Leader Picks and Predictions: Back DeChambeau, Bradley at Aronimink

My Four Picks in the 2026 PGA Championship First Round Leader Market

Aronimink Golf Club is set for its first major championship as it plays host to the 2026 PGA Championship this week. With the likes of Jordan Spieth looking to complete the Career Grand Slam, Rory McIlroy going for the Calendar Year Grand Slam again, and Cameron Young looking for his first major title, this promises to be an excellent event.

We are here though to look specifically at the first round leader market, and see if we can find the best candidates for the opening day lead.

Scottie Scheffler plays the role of defending champion this week, and he will rightly be favorite in both the outright and first round leader markets, but do can we look past him here?

By now, if you have read my stuff, you'll know it's very likely I am indeed going to skip past the market leader, but if you are looking for a more profitable way of betting on Scheffler, he looks big enough at +1800 in this market. With that said, he has never led after round 1 of a major, despite boasting four major wins, and only five times in his career has he led after round 1 anywhere else. This probably means he's due, but I will look elsewhere.

To find some better value then, I will be looking at recent PGA Championship first round leaders to try and spot any similarities. If the historical data points to a certain type of player, then we can then look at coupling that with recent form, to find the best options.

Let's dive in.

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2026 PGA Championship First Round Leaders Odds

2026 PGA Championship Date, Time, and Where to Watch

• Date: Thursday, May 14th - Sunday, May 17th, 2026
• Time: 7:00 AM ET
• Where to Watch: ESPN, ESPN+, CBS

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Former PGA Championship First Round Leaders

Here are the 5 most recent first round leaders at the PGA Championship and their respective tee times. This will give us a guide on the typical scores required, and whether the morning or afternoon wave typically come out on top in this event.

2025 - Jhonattan Vegas (2:26 pm #10) - 64

2024 - Xander Schauffele (8:03 am #10) - 62

2023 - Bryson DeChambeau (10:56 am #10) - 66

2022 - Rory McIlroy (8:11 am #10) - 65

2021 - Corey Conners (1:03 pm #1) - 67

While it is going to be different on each course, when it comes to the better nine to start on, it's interesting to note that four of the last five first round leaders started on the 10th hole. Whether that's being away from the crowds on the 1st tee, getting the harder holes out the way first and then scoring coming in, or just coincedence is hard to quantify, but it's at least interesting to note.

It's also clear we cannot make any bold claims on the opening score required to lead after round 1 of the PGA Championship. Every year the leading score has been different on day one, ranging from 62 to 67. It looks like a 66 would have you in the hunt at least, but beyond that's it's going to come down to course setup and conditions, and given this is the first time Aronimink has hosted a major since 1962, that's quite tough to predict.

Former First Round Leaders at Aronimink

There have been three PGA Tour tournaments held at Aronimink over the years, and while all of them were a long time ago now, they might give us an idea on the scores required to lead on day one. Here are the first round leaders for the first two AT&T National renewals, as well as the 2018 BMW Championship.

2010 AT&T National - Four players tied with a 66, including Jason Day.

2011 AT&T National - Two players tied with a 66, including Adam Scott.

2018 BMW Championship - Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy both shot 62.

Prior to the 2018 BMW Championship this course played tougher, and I am sure the event organizers this week would like it to be closer to a 66 on Thursday than a 62. I would expect something between a 64 and a 66 this week.

PGA Championship First Round Leader Trends

Major Champions Rule

Three of the last five first round leaders at the PGA Championship are now or were already major championships, giving you an idea of the calibre of player who gets off to a hot start in this tournament.

Previous First Round Lead a Must

Each of the last five PGA Championship first round leaders had already held at least 3 career first round leads in their career, with Corey Conners recording two on the PGA Tour, and an extra on the Korn Ferry before leading here, while by contrast, Rory McIlroy had held a whopping 31 first round leads before leading here in 2022.

Bryson DeChambeau had held four first round leads across two tours (PGA and DP World) before leading this event on day one, while Xander Schauffele had held four as an individual and five in total before leading here. Jhonnatan Vegas is the surprise package on the recent first round leader list in this event, but even he had held 7 first round leads on the PGA Tour before leading here.

Weather Forecast for Round 1 of the 2026 PGA Championship

The weather looks reasonably consistent, but there is slightly stronger gusts for the very early starters, if that is something you are worried about. I personally will just split my four picks across the morning and afternoon wave equally.

If I were to favor one wave, I would just about lean the afternoon as it's warmer and the gusts are lower, but ultimately, I don't think the weather will have too much of a say in who will be first round leader.

Who are the Fastest Starters in the Field This Year?

Here are the top 5 fastest starters in the field based on their Round 1 Scoring Average during the 2026 PGA Tour season.

• John Parry (1st Overall in 2026 - Scoring Average 68:60 - Low Opening Round - 64 (Sony Open)
• Chris Gotterup (2nd Overall in 2026 – Scoring Average 68.67) – Low Opening Round – 63 (Sony Open & Phoenix Open)
• Nick Taylor (4th overall in 2026 - Scoring Average 68.85) - Low Opening Round - 62 (Sony Open)
• Ricky Castillo (6th overall in 2026) - Scoring Average 69.00) - Low Opening Round - 66 (Sony Open)
• Alex Smalley (6th overall in 2026) - Scoring Average 69.00) - Low Opening Round - 64 (Sony Open)

The Sony Open has a lot to answer for...

What Score is Required to Lead After Round 1?

A 63 almost certainly gets it done, and while everyone is worried the scoring will get out of hand here, based on the 2018 BMW Championship, I still think a 64 is the more reasonable target.

If your guy shoots 66 or better though, he's going to have a shot.

The Favorites in the PGA Championship First Round Leader Market This Week

Here are the favorites in the First Round Leader market at the 2026 PGA Championship.

• Scottie Scheffler +1800
• Rory McIlroy +2200
• Cameron Young +2700
• Ludvig Aberg +3000
• Jon Rahm +3000

2026 PGA Championship First Round Leader Picks

Here are my picks in the first round leader market for this year's second major championship. Who will set off the fastest on day one? Here are my four picks below.

Bryson DeChambeau +3500 Check out the best odds at FanDuel Sportsbook

• Last Five Round 1 Scores - 67-63-76-71-69
• Last Five Round 1 Finishing Positions - 1-1-56-29-11

This could be FOMO because I am not on Bryson outright, but we know he starts well in majors regularly and I want to keep him onside for this one, especially as he has a recent first round lead in the tournament, and he's got course experience.

When he played the BMW Championship here in 2018, he shot a round of 64 and two rounds of 67, so he played solidly for most of the week, and he ended the week in 19th place.

In his career he has twice held the first round lead at Augusta and once in this event, and he will certainly be looking for some vengeance after a poor missed cut in his last major start at The Masters.

Last week was a nice return to form after a bumpy spell, and it could well pay off, warming up in the U.S. for the first time, after globetrotting earlier in the season.

There are less stats available, but he's twice led after round 1 in his last five starts and he likes the majors. There's very little not to like.

He tees off at 8:18 am with Ludvig Aberg and Rickie Fowler, starting on the 10th tee.

Tommy Fleetwood +4500 Check out the best odds at BetMGM Sportsbook

• Round 1 Scoring Average in 2026 - 70.22 (63rd on the PGA Tour)
• Last Five Round 1 Scores - 67-71-76-70-67
• Last Five Round 1 Finishing Positions - 8-10-80-15-8
• Birdie or Better Percentage in 2026 - 23.15% (46th on the PGA Tour)

I am happy to ignore some of the bleaker stats above on Tommy Fleetwood, because he only plays the toughest events, and when you look at his last five round 1 positions, rather than the relatively run of the mill opening scores, you will see he's been inside the top 10 three times, and inside the top 15 four times, in his past five starts, after round 1.

Fleetwood has held 10 career first round leads, and they have come in big tournaments. He has led the Open Championship after round 1, and he's also held two first round leads at The Players Championship. With three of his first round leads coming at a major and a major adjacent, and others coming at the biggest events on the DP World Tour, it's clear Fleetwood steps up for the big events on day one.

He generally makes a slow start in this major, and it's certainly not his best of the four, but one thing is different this week, and that is the course.

Back in 2018, Fleetwood opened with a round of 71 at Aronimink, but he shot back-to-back 62s on Friday and Saturday to put himself firmly in the mix for the tournament, before eventually settling for 8th place. If he somehow found a 62 again tomorrow, he'd be leading and this bet would cash, but honestly, I'd settle for a 64 now if you offered it to me, and he's clearly shown he can score like that here.

Fleetwood tees off in the afternoon with Ryder Cup teammate, Robert MacIntyre, and Chris Gotterup, which looks a favorable pairing for the Englishman. He goes off at 1:43 pm from the 1st tee.

Gary Woodland +8000 Check out the best odds at FanDuel Sportsbook

• Round 1 Scoring Average in 2026 - 69.33 (14th on the PGA Tour)
• Last Five Round 1 Scores - 64-71-65-68-71
• Last Five Round 1 Finishing Positions - 2-10-4-6-32
• Birdie or Better Percentage in 2026 - 23.47% (38th on the PGA Tour)

Gary Woodland is playing good golf, he's already held a first round lead in the PGA Championship (2018), and he's been 8th after day one as recently as 2021. Since then he's had a tough time on and off the course, so it's not surprising he's more recent results are less than desirable.

With that said, his recent form is very good and he's been inside the top 10 after four of his last five opening rounds, which is a great sign.

He has six career first round leads under his belt, and given they have come in big events like this and the BMW Championship, he's shown he can start fast on the biggest of stages.

Woodland also has positive course form under his belt as well, finishing 12th at the BMW Championship here in 2018, and shooting three straight 66s to open, and closed it out with a 67.

He is my second choice in the morning wave, as he tees off at 7:34 am from the 10th tee, with Jason Day and Sam Burns.

Keegan Bradley +8800 Check out the best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook

• Round 1 Scoring Average in 2026 - 70.64 (101st on the PGA Tour)
• Last Five Round 1 Scores - 73-72-67-72-69
• Last Five Round 1 Finishing Positions -81-17-15-37-20
• Birdie or Better Percentage in 2026 - 23.39% (41st on the PGA Tour)

Keegan Bradley has won on this golf course, and he also won this tournament on debut back in 2011, so he has a rich affinity with the host course and the event.

While it's been a bit of a stop-start season for Bradley, who clearly took a while to get over his Ryder Cup loss, he has now been inside the top 20 on day in three of his past four starts, and he's obviously more than capable of going low here, as shown when winning the BMW Championship at -20.

Two 64s and two 66s were enough to get into a playoff with Justin Rose and he came out on top eight years ago, and while a lot of time has passed since then, I trust he will enjoy the course all the same.

Crucially though, Bradley has been coming out hot in the opening round of the PGA Championship of late, sitting inside the top 9 on day one, in three of his last five starts in the event.

Bradley has held the first round lead 11 times in his career, and while this would be the first time he would have led a major on day one, he's come close on multiple occasions.

Good vibes will get Bradley through the first round, and I think he can shoot the lowest round of the day with that in mind.

Bradley will tee off from the 1st at 1:54 pm, alongside two people he likes a lot in Cameron Young and Justin Thomas - that should lead to a strong level of comfortability, and in turn, hopefully a low round.

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