Cleveland Cavaliers vs Oklahoma City Thunder Picks and Prediction: Harden's Cavs Roll Into a Shorthanded Paycom
The Cleveland Cavaliers, sitting 3rd in the Eastern Conference at 36-21, travel to face West-leading Oklahoma City at Paycom Center on Sunday, February 22, tipping off at 1:00 PM ET on ABC. With the Cavaliers riding a seven-game win streak and 12 wins in their last 13 since acquiring James Harden on February 4, this matchup pits a red-hot road squad (17-10 away) against a depleted Thunder team missing its three biggest contributors in reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (abdominal strain), All-NBA forward Jalen Williams (hamstring), and lockdown defender Alex Caruso (ankle), as OKC tries to protect its 43-14 record and top Western Conference seed while navigating its most injury-riddled stretch of the 2025-2026 campaign.
OC Staff - February 22, 2026, 12:50 PM EST
3 Minute ReadCleveland Cavaliers vs Oklahoma City Thunder Picks and Prediction: Harden's Cavs Roll Into a Shorthanded Paycom
Cavaliers vs Thunder Recent Performance
Cleveland enters Sunday's 1 PM tip on a seven-game heater, winning 12 of its last 13 and doing it without breaking a sweat. The Cavaliers haven't dropped a game since James Harden suited up on February 4, and the offense has found another gear entirely. Donovan Mitchell (28.8 PPG) is doing Mitchell things, the bench unit of Dennis Schroder, Jaylon Tyson, Keon Ellis, Thomas Bryant, and Nae'Qwan Tomlin has been a genuine difference-maker in close games, and Harden's 8.2 assists per game keeps everybody in rhythm. A 17-10 road record confirms this isn't a home stand mirage. These Cavaliers travel just fine.
Oklahoma City still owns the best record in the West at 43-14, but the last two months have humbled them a bit. The Thunder are 6-6 in their last 12 games and have spent most of February playing without their two best players. They beat Brooklyn 105-86 on Friday behind Jared McCain's 21-point breakout, and Chet Holmgren (17.4 PPG, 8.7 RPG) has stepped into a bigger load. That win was encouraging. Facing Cleveland without SGA, Williams, and Caruso all at once is a completely different ask.
Cavaliers vs Thunder Head to Head
OKC torched Cleveland by 32 earlier this season, a 136-104 beatdown that feels like a different lifetime given how much both rosters have changed. The Thunder hold a 1-0 series lead and a 1-0 record against the spread in that lone matchup. Context matters a lot here. That was a healthy, full-strength OKC squad. Sunday is a completely different chessboard.
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Oklahoma City Thunder Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Sunday, February 22, 2026
- Time: 1:00 PM ET
- How to Watch: ABC, NBA League Pass
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Cavaliers vs Thunder Odds
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Cavaliers vs Thunder Team News
Cleveland is rolling in at full strength. Harden is healthy, Mitchell is locked in, and Evan Mobley gives the Cavs a legitimate anchor on both ends. Nothing on the injury report changes the calculus here. When this group is together and clicking the way it has been, the depth alone makes it brutal to beat them over four quarters.
Oklahoma City is without five players on the official report. SGA (abdominal strain) is out and won't be re-evaluated for another week. Jalen Williams (right hamstring strain) is at least two weeks from even being looked at again, having re-aggravated the injury in just his second game back, which tells you everything about how cautious OKC will be with him going forward. Alex Caruso (left ankle sprain), Ajay Mitchell (ankle), and Thomas Sorber (knee) are also sitting. That's the reigning MVP (31.8 PPG), an All-NBA forward (17.5 PPG), and a lockdown perimeter defender all unavailable in one afternoon. Chet leads the charge, McCain brings energy off the bench, and the rest of Oklahoma City's supporting cast will have to find a way to stay competitive for 48 minutes.
Prediction: Cavaliers 115, Thunder 104
Cleveland gets the cover. OKC is missing too much firepower to keep this close for four quarters. The Thunder's home advantage is real, sitting at 23-6 inside Paycom, but home court means a lot more when your best player is actually suiting up. Without SGA and Williams, OKC loses roughly 50 combined points of nightly production. Chet will have a solid game and McCain might get buckets, but nobody on that floor can match what Mitchell and Harden do in the half court. Cleveland has been in cruise control for three weeks straight. No reason to tap the brakes now.
Best Bet: Under 226.5 (+105) Click here to get the best odds at BetMGM Sportsbook
OKC was scoring 120-plus when fully healthy. Strip out SGA and Williams and you're left with a Thunder offense that can't generate points at the same clip, full stop. Oklahoma City also went Under in both games coming out of the All-Star break. Cleveland has trended to the Under in 53% of its games this season, and a projected total around 224 lines up perfectly with what you'd expect from a shorthanded OKC offense facing one of the better defenses in the East. Public money will chase the Over riding Cleveland's hot streak, but the Cavs don't need to score 130 to win this comfortably. Mitchell and Harden control pace, OKC can't manufacture points without its two stars, and this one lands a few ticks below the number. Take the Under.
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