Lithuania v Slovenia - Sunday 17:00, Sky Sports 1
Lithuania and Slovenia are two of the weaker teams in Group F on paper, and the form book tells us to expect a low scoring encounter. There have been fewer than three goals in each of Slovenia’s last nine matches and at least one team has failed to score in six of their last seven. Lithuania on the other hand have failed to score in 11 of their last 16 whilst there have been less than three goals in 11 of their last 14 at home. The two sides played out a couple of low-scoring games against each other in Euro 2016 qualifiers, with Slovenia managing a win to nil in their away fixture and in light of both teams recent form we’re backing a repeat of this at 3.6.
Up front Roman Bezjak has been in fine domestic form of late with nine goals in as many games for HNK Rijeka, and with neither of his likely strike partners Robert Beric and Josep Ilicic, nor veteran 37 year old Milivoje Novakovic (almost certain to start on the bench), having been amongst the goals recently at club or international level, we think at a price of 7.5 looks good value for Bezjak to open the scoring here.