AFC East Odds: Betting the Exact Order After Free Agency

Relative to their divisional counterparts, the New England Patriots have been very quiet so far in free agency. What could that mean for their chances to finish at the very top or bottom of the AFC East? We break down the latest AFC East odds.
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AFC East Odds: Betting the Final Order After Free Agency

The league-wide free agent and trade frenzy probably isn't over, but as the dust settles and the calendar turns to April, the month of the draft, it's come time to do some preliminary evaluations around where teams stand. This is not only the case for overall power rankings, either.

The race is all the way on for this year's division chases, and as a result, DraftKings went ahead and dropped betting odds on how each of the eight divisions could shake out. Odds are listed for each of the exact scenarios, listing the division winner at the top through the last-place finisher in fourth.

Let's see what the AFC East has in store.

Click Here for AFC East Odds

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Top 5 Scenarios of AFC East Odds After Free Agency

AFC East - Exact Order Odds
DraftKings' division exact order for the AFC East
OddsAFC East Exact Order
+2401st BUF Bills/2nd MIA Dolphins/3rd NY Jets/4th NE Patriots
+2501st BUF Bills/2nd NE Patriots/3rd MIA Dolphins/4th NY Jets
+5501st MIA Dolphins/2nd BUF Bills/3rd NE Patriots/4th NY Jets
+6501st NE Patriots/2nd BUF Bills/3rd MIA Dolphins/4th NY Jets
+17001st MIA Dolphins/2nd NE Patriots/3rd BUF Bills/4th NY Jets
+17001st NE Patriots/2nd MIA Dolphins/3rd BUF Bills/4th NY Jets

Tied for a league-high with an 11.5-win over/under, the Bills have an edge of 2.5 wins over the new-look Dolphins. Josh Allen and crew are back following an 11-win season, and they'll now be in search of their third straight division crown, for which they are favored at -190.

Despite being listed at the same exact odds (+400) as the Patriots to win the division, Miami comes out slightly ahead of New England as the oddsmakers' most likely team to finish second. The status quo remains at quarterback, but they have made massive splashes in free agency and via trade in acquiring Tyreek Hill from the Chiefs. Meanwhile, the Patriots have done very little to change the complexion of their squad. They lost J.C. Jackson, Ted Karras and Shaq Mason to bring back tackle Trent Brown and minor new additions such as linebacker Mack Wilson, who was added via Cleveland.

And as for the Jets, they're expected to spend their third straight season and sixth in seven years below the other three AFC East contenders. They're all the way down at +2500 for the division, the equivalent of an implied probability below 4%, so it's needless to say based on that and their recent reputation, they aren't expected to leap any one team even if Robert Saleh's second season is a promising one.

Where can we look further down the list to find a bigger pay-off at more improbable odds?

AFC East Exact Order Value After Free Agency

AFC East Exact Order Value
DraftKings' selected value for divisional exact order
AFC East Exact OrderOdds
1st BUF Bills/2nd MIA Dolphins/3rd NY Jets/4th NE Patriots+2000

This should come as no surprise, but no matter how you cut it Buffalo has to be in the driver's seat in the East. Josh Allen is the only elite quarterback for any of the four squads, and on defense, the Bills upped their game by adding Von Miller -- Pro Football Focus' number-three edge -- on the outside. He'll line up opposite Gregory Rousseau, who posted a top-30 grade in his very first season, and in front of the league's fifth-rated safety, Micah Hyde, and two of the 43 best corners in Taron Johnson and Tredavious White. In that way, they'll match up well against the likes of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle when they meet Miami in their two divisional showdowns.

The Dolphins are going to be a force to be reckoned with, particularly on the offensive end in the event Tua Tagovailoa's promised talent comes to fruition. And he should have all the opportunity he can get, given the free-agent signing of All-Pro tackle Terron Armstead. That, in addition to a talented defense, should be enough to solidify their spot ahead of the Jets and Patriots.

Wait -- the Jets before the Patriots? Yes, and primarily the reasoning is two-fold: 1) inactivity and 2) risk versus reward. New York beefed up the line by paying free agent guard Laken Tomlinson and brought in both Tyler Conklin and C.J. Uzomah at tight end, without a doubt to make Zach Wilson more comfortable in the pocket and throwing inside. Elsewhere, they built on their secondary with safety Jordan Whitehead and corner D.J. Reed -- a standout last year in Seattle.

All that being said, the Patriots' offseason can't hold a light on what Joe Douglas did to provide the Jets with the best chance to reach or exceed their expected win total. New England mostly held serve though it watched prized corner J.C. Jackson secure a bag in Los Angeles. It's going to be a more uncertain defense, and an offense lacking the high-level skill to push Mac Jones to the next level. Jones could have a better season than Wilson, but if the sophomore quarterbacks are even close to a wash the Jets' total package could be a mere game or two better come the end of Week 17.

The reward of the season following that script is worth the minimal risk. If you were to place $100 on this outcome, the return comes to $2,100. That's mighty valuable when you consider the fact that you only have to swap the third- and fourth-place teams.

Claim this $1,000 RISK FREE bet from FanDuel


Brett Oswalt has been writing about sports for five years, has covered everything from the NBA to College Football DFS, and previously served as an editor at numberFire. He is a Senior Workforce Planning Analyst at Highmark by day, and an avid sports fan and girl-dad by night. He resides in Pittsburgh, PA with his wife, Marley, daughter, Aria, and goldendoodle, Braun.

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