2020 US Presidential Election Odds: 58% of people expect Donald Trump to defeat Joe Biden

Online bettors are convinced Donald Trump will defeat Joe Biden in November.
Sam Eaton
Wed, September 2, 1:06 AM

2020 US Election Odds

We reported earlier today that Donald Trump had been re-installed as the favorite to win the 2020 US election by various UK bookmakers. Out of the 14 sportsbooks with 2020 US Presidential Election odds markets available on the Oddschecker UK site, seven now have President Trump as the favorite.

Below you’ll see the best odds available for the 2020 US Election:

Candidate

Odds (UK Format)

Odds (US Format)

Implied Percentage Chance

Joe Biden

19/20

-103

50.8%

Donald Trump

1/1

+100

50%

It’s been a week to celebrate for Donald Trump supporters, as just last week the President odds implied he only had a 44.4% chance of winning the US Election. At the time, Joe Biden’s odds implied he had a 55.6% chance of winning the November election.

How reliable are the odds markets? OddsChecker has been used as a reference point by major publications around the world including the BBC, Forbes, Washington Examiner plus many more. Despite sports betting being legal in many US states, betting on political markets isn’t. However, despite being a US event, the 2020 US Election will still be one of the biggest betting events in the world. There has been over £70.3 million wagered on the 2020 US Election with one of OddsChecker UK’s partners alone.

Even though you can’t legally bet on politics, US residents can still play Draftkings $100,000 fantasy game and try and predict the outcomes of various events to win the top prize. Click the link below to find out more.

Online betting is still pretty new to a lot of US residents, click here to find out which bookmakers operate in your state and the potential bonuses you can claim. 

2020 US Election Betting

Trump supporters will also find comfort in the number of people backing the current President to defeat Joe Biden. Just over 58% of all bets placed on the 2020 US Election market in August were placed on Donald Trump, which is his highest market share since May.

Month

Percentage of Wagers on Trump

Percentage of Wagers on Biden

January

53%

8%

February

46%

4%

March

46%

23%

April

60%

25%

May

58%

29%

June

54%

37%

July

56%

29%

August

58%

33%

Why do the betting patterns matter so much? Earlier in the month, we highlighted how betting patterns have been a lot more reliable than actual odds at predicting big political events in the last few years. Below you’ll find four political events where online bettors predicted correctly:

  • Kamala Harris becoming Joe Biden’s running mate (30% of bets)
  • Donald Trump winning the 2016 US Election 61% of bets)
  • The United Kingdom leaving the European Union (73% of bets)
  • Boris Johnson becoming UK Prime Minister (39% of bets)

For both the 2016 US Election and Brexit the betting favorite lost the event, however, the most wagered option won.

Click here to read about betting on previous political events.

 

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2024 US Presidential Election Odds

One UK bookmaker is currently taking bets on the 2024 US Election and has three candidates as joint-favorites.

Candidate

UK Odds

Implied Chance

Joe Biden

11/2

15.4%

Kamala Harris

11/2

15.4%

Mike Pence

11/2

15.4%

Donald Trump

16/1

5.9%

Tom Cotton

20/1

4.8%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

20/1

4.8%

Michelle Obama

25/1

3.8%

Kamala Harris has been the most wagered candidate in the market, accounting for 20% of all bets. Interestingly the second most backed person in the betting market was Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

We will be posting regular updates on the 2020 US Election on our Facebook page, click here to follow. 

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