2020 US Presidential Election Odds: 66% Of Wagers This Weekend On Trump Beating Biden

Support grows for Donald Trump as some sportsbook narrowly increase his chances of winning the election
Sam Eaton
Sun, November 1, 8:12 PM EST

2020 US Presidential Election Odds: 66% Of Wagers This Weekend On Donald Trump Beating Joe Biden

Betting on the 2020 Presidential election hit new heights this weekend as more and more people headed to the election betting market aiming to make a quick buck on the upcoming vote.

The election has already set new betting records all around the world, with one of our partners already taking over $333 million worth of wagers on the outcome. This number is expected to reach over $600 million before the result is announced.

Thousands of people around the world would have placed a wager on the Donald Trump vs Joe Biden this weekend, and our data indicates that just over 66% of people picked Donald Trump as their bet.

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2020 Election Odds: Joe Biden’s Odds Of Winning The Election

Joe Biden is the favorite to win the 2020 US election with the sportsbooks, his odds currently sit at -188 (8/15), which implies he’s got a 65.2% chance of winning the election.

If you are new to online betting, this means if you were to place a $100 wager on Joe Biden winning the election you would be set to win $153 ($53 profit).

Joe Biden took over Donald Trump as the betting favorite back in May, however, at the beginning of 2020 his odds only implied he had a 13% chance of being elected.

2020 Election Odds: Donald Trump’s Odds Of Winning The Election

Donald Trump was the long-time betting favorite to win the 2020 US election, his odds at one point in February implied he had a 61.9% chance of defeating Joe Biden.

Donald Trump’s odds now sit at +188 (15/8) which imply he’s got a 34.8% chance of securing another term.

If you were to wager $100 on Donald Trump winning the 2020 election, you would be set to win $287.50 ($187.50 profit).

2020 Presidential Election Odds

 

US Odds

UK Odds

Implied % Chance

Donald Trump

+188

15/8

34.8%

Joe Biden

-188

8/15

65.2%

 

2020 US Presidential Election Betting

For large parts of this week, Donald Trump accounted for the majority of bets on the market but the largest volume of money was being wagered on Joe Biden. However, this weekend not only did Donald Trump account for 66% of all bets placed, but he also accounted for 53% of the money wagered on the outcome of the election.

The biggest bet placed on the 2020 election this weekend via OddsChecker was on Donald Trump winning, however, the next three largest wagers were all on Joe Biden.

On Thursday, one of our UK partners reported they had taken a $650k bet on Joe Biden winning the election. If Biden did defeat Trump, this online bettor would be set to collect just over $1 million.

 

% of bets placed this weekend

% of money wagered this weekend

Donald Trump

66%

53%

Joe Biden

31%

46%

 

2020 US Election Betting: October Overview

Donald Trump accounted for just shy of 63% of all bets placed in the 2020 US election odds market during October. However, the President only received 39% of the money wagered on the election in the same time period.

There were plenty of  ‘high-rollers’ looking to make a quick win on the election in October, as all five of the biggest wagers put down were on Joe Biden winning.   

 

% of bets placed in October

% of money wagered this weekend

Donald Trump

63%

39%

Joe Biden

32%

61%

 

Donald Trump’s Election Odds And Betting Compared To 2016

As you’ll see in the table below, the 2020 US election is following a very similar trend to the 2016 election. In 2016, Donald Trump was the betting outsider, however, there were considerably more people wagering Trump compared to Hillary Clinton.

 

 

Hillary Clinton

Donald Trump (2016)

 

Joe Biden

Donald Trump (2020)

Jan 2016

14%

23%

Jan 2020

8%

55%

Feb 2016

26%

12%

Feb 2020

4%

47%

Mar 2016

8%

14%

Mar 2020

24%

47%

Apr 2016

7%

15%

Apr 2020

25%

60%

May 2016

7%

47%

May 2020

29%

58%

June 2016

15%

60%

June 2020

37%

54%

July 2016

25%

49%

July 2020

29%

57%

Aug 2016

22%

39%

Aug 2020

34%

59%

Sept 2016

31%

35%

Sept 2020

41%

52%

Oct 2016

37%

55%

Oct 2020

32%

63%

 

The following table shows the odds for both candidates in the run-up to the 2016 and 2020 Presidential elections.

Implied chance of winning (UK odds) on the 1st of each month

 

Hillary Clinton

Donald Trump (2016)

 

Joe Biden

Donald Trump (2020)

Jan 2016

58% (8/11)

11% (8/1)

Jan 2020

13% (13/2)

52% (10/11)

Feb 2016

52% (10/11)

23% (10/3)

Feb 2020

14% (6/1)

57% (3/4)

Mar 2016

62% (8/13)

29% (5/2)

Mar 2020

13% (13/2)

60% (2/3)

Apr 2016

68% (8/17)

17% (5/1)

Apr 2020

42% (11/8)

50% (1/1)

May 2016

74% (4/11)

22% (7/2)

May 2020

44% (13/10)

50% (1/1)

June 2016

65% (8/15)

33% (2/1)

June 2020

48% (11/10)

48% (11/10)

July 2016

74% (4/11)

25% (3/1)

July 2020

60% (4/6)

36% (7/4)

Aug 2016

65% (8/15)

35% (15/8)

Aug 2020

62% (5/8)

36% (7/4)

Sept 2016

74% (4/11)

25% (3/1)

Sept 2020

50% (1/1)

50% (1/1)

Oct 2016

70% (4/9)

27% (11/4)

Oct 2020

58% (5/7)

42% (11/8)

Nov 2016

71.4% (2/5)

27% (11/4)

Nov 2020

65% (8/15)

35% (15/8)

 

2020 Election Betting Insight & Predictions

OddsChecker's Head of Marketing, Sam Eaton "If Donald Trump was to win the 2020 election, the outcome would be far less of a surprise compared to 2016. Four years ago, online bookmakers only gave Trump a 27% of defeating Hillary Clinton, whereas the odds set for 2020 imply he’s got a 35% of winning.”

“One factor which sportsbooks think will have a dramatic impact on the result of the election is the voter turnout. On the 30th of September, the odds of a 60%+ turnout sat at +294, which indicated just a 25% chance. However, the sportsbooks now have the odds set at -450, which implies an 82% chance of a 60%+ turnout.”

“Support for Donald Trump in the betting market is likely to keep growing over the next couple of days as more and more people look to place their bets. Betting on all events intensifies the closer you get the result. A lot of more novice bettors will opt for Donald Trump largely down the greater returns, whereas, bettors willing to wager larger volumes will be more inclined to take any perceived value on Joe Biden winning. Essentially comparing the bet to what could be made via other investment opportunities.”

Betting on the 2020 US Election Vegas Odds

Unfortunately, US residents can’t currently bet on political events, however, there are various states where online betting has been legalized. Residents of these states can bet on events like the Super Bowl, The Masters or even play their favorite casino games. Sportsbooks like DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM all operate in these states, and all offer extremely generous welcome offers to new members. Click here to see the best offers available on the market.

Despite not being able to wager money on the outcome of Donald Trump vs Joe Biden, you can still make money on the result. Both FanDuel and DraftKings are both running free-to-play games for the 2020 election. It’s completely free to play, and all you have to do is sign-up and enter you election predictions to win a share of the massive prize pool.

Click here to find out more about FanDuel's free-to-play election game

 

Click here to find out more about DraftKings' free-to-play election game

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