The Open Championship Betting Picks, Odds, Course Preview and Prediction
The PGA Tour is staying in Scotland for The Open Championship this week. Andy Lack shares his The Open Championship betting picks, odds, course preview, and prediction. Don't miss out on these Golf picks.
Andy Lack - July 15, 2024, 9:15 AM EDT
15 minThe Open Championship Betting Picks, Odds, Course Preview and Prediction
After a thrilling week down the coast in North Berwork, we have finally reached the final major of the year. For the first time since 2016, the Open Championship returns to Royal Troon. This will be the 11th time that Troon has hosted an Open, and he golf course was founded in 1878 and designed by George Strath and 1882 Open Champion Willie Fernie. Ahead of this year's Open Championship, restoration architect Martin Ebert made a few notable changes, most in the form of added length to combat modern technology. We have seen Troon champions ranging from Todd Hamilton, one of the biggest surprise winners in Open history, to Arnold Palmer and Tom Watson.
Troon was also responsible for the one more iconic majors in recent history, when Phil Mickelson and Henrik Stenson separated from the rest of the field in 2016. It's unlikely we see anything closely resembling the infamous duel in 2016, as a massive weather advantage contributed to Phil and Stenson's separation across Thursday and Friday, and with the further optimization of technology, it has only become harder to distinguish elite play from very, very good play. Still, Troon looks to provide the setting for another transcendent Open Championship and close off major season off on a high note.
The OPEN Championship DATE, START TIME, AND WHERE TO WATCH
- Date: July 18 - 21, 2024
- Where: Troon, Scotland
- Where to Watch: Golf Channel, NBC, Peacock
The OPEN Championship ODDS
- Winner: Scottie Scheffler (+500), Rory McIlroy (+800), Ludvig Aberg (+1400)
Click here for the latest the Open Championship odds
The Open Championship: Course Preview
Royal Troon
Royal Troon has changed since we last saw the golf course in 2016. Martin Ebert, who was also in charge of changes at Royal Portrush and Royal Liverpool, was in charge of the updates. Many of the changes came in the form of added yardage to beef the course up against modern technology. 195 yards have been added to the golf course, taking Troon from 7,190 yards to 7,385 yards for the 2024 Open. Nine new tee boxes were created, including a new back tee on number 10 that makes the drive completely blind. Another notable change came to the par five 6th hole, which will now play 623 yards, making it the longest hole in Open Championship history. Two new bunkers have been added to the driving area, as well as 22 yards of added distance. Close to 20 yards were also added to the par four 11th hole, “Railway,” which already played as the hardest hole on the course in 2016.
The golf course itself can be thought of in three parts: the opening, the middle, and the finale. Troon begins with three easy, downwind par fours that are essentially a lay-up off the tee and a short wedge. There is a chance that we see some players get up close to the green with driver, but that has not historically proven to be the optimal strategy. Four and six make up two of the par fives, and even with 45 yards of added distance, the fourth hole should be reachable for most players in the field. The sixth hole is a far more challenging par five, but it should still play downwind and provide another great scoring opportunities.
Beginning with the seventh hole, the course turns inland, changes direction, and players will face more of a cross-wind, more rugged terrain, and holes with thicker vegetation and gorse. The “Postage Stamp” eighth hole remains one of the famous par threes in golf, playing just 123 yards into a crosswind to the smallest green on the course. 11 is the hardest hole on the course, "Railway," which plays into a tough crosswind, with out of bounds on the right. While there is more fescue, gorse and vegetation on 7-12, the final six holes provide a long and challenging finish back into the wind, running parallel to holes 1-6. With the 13th hole, the player turns northwards and faces three long par fours, two tough par threes, and a challenging par five that is bisected by a ditch off the tee at 320 yards, requiring players to think twice about whether they can reach this hole in two shots.
In summary, Royal Troon is far more similar of a golf course to Royal Liverpool than it is St. Andrews. The name of the game at Liverpool was accuracy off the tee, middle to long iron play, and short game skill. St. Andrews provided a sharp juxtaposition of power and lag putting. Troon is more closely aligned with the former, featuring some of the narrowest fairways and smallest greens of any course on the Open rota. Troon's greens measure just a quarter of the size of those at St. Andrews, and it is not a golf course that can be dominated with power off the tee. In fact, Phil Mickelson and Henrik Stenson both deployed an incredibly measured approach. Mickelson laid back off the tee on nearly every par four in order to find the short grass, as similar to Liverpool, Troon should feature on one of the highest missed fairway penalties on Tour. The fairway pot bunkers and surrounding gorse is menacing, and as we saw at Liverpool, accurate drivers such as Brian Harman, Sepp Straka, and Tom Kim, possessed a tremendous advantage. While there are many holes on the front nine where players can club down, play for position, and still have wedges into the green, the golf course is long enough now where players will still need to thread the needle on the back nine with driver.
A conservative strategy proved optimal with Stenson and Mickelson, paired with elite overall approach play and deft touch around the greens. Troon will feature a much lower greens-in-regulation percentage than a St. Andrews, and it is by no means a golf course that de-values short game skill and we will see players lag putting from 20 yards out. The golf course is soft enough and guarded in front by pot bunkers that players will need to rely heavily on touch around the green, and I am primarily looking for players with a strong, well-rounded combination of total driving with an increased weight on accuracy, wedge and long-iron play, and short game skill.
The Open Championship Classic Key Stats
- Total Driving
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained Total: Links Golf Courses
The Open Championship: Outright Picks
Tommy Fleetwood (+2500) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
Golf bettors have long been waiting the major breakthrough from Tommy Fleetwood, and what a better an opportunity than the Open Championship, a tournament where the Englishman has recorded four top-15 finishes in last six starts. Fleetwood was the first round leader last year at Royal Liverpool, and he has also added a fourth at St. Andrew’s in 2022 and a runner-up at Royal Portrush. The 33-year-old’s success in major championships should not come as a surprise, as he is an incredibly accurate driver of the ball who thrives in windy conditions. Fleetwood remains one of the most well-rounded options at our disposal this week, ranking top-20 in total driving, recent approach play, recent around the green play, scrambling in difficult scoring conditions, putting on slow greens, strokes gained total on links courses, and bogey avoidance. The Open Championship has long been the major breakthrough for crafty veterans and more unheralded players with elite driving accuracy, and Fleetwood checks every box I am looking for this week.
Tony Finau (+5000) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
Coming off back-to-back top-five finishes at the U.S. Open and Travelers Championship, Tony Finau is playing some of the best golf of his career. The 34-year-old has now gained over 2.5 strokes on approach in five straights, as well as over a stroke and a half putting in three starts. We always know that we can count on Finau’s strong approach play, but his improved short game and putting will be the difference maker at Troon. Finau is one of the best wedge and long iron players in this field, but he will still need a solid putting performance to capitalize on the birdie opportunities generated on the front nine. Finau’s links resume also leaves a lot to be encouraged about, as he finished 18th in his debut Open appearance at Royal Troon in 2016. Finau has also recorded a ninth-place finish at Carnoustie, a third-place finish at Royal Portrush, and a 15th-place finish at Royal St. George’s, and he ranks first in this field in windy conditions. I’m expecting another strong performance from Finau across the pond.
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GOLF ODDS
