Super Bowl Odds: Teams Rising, Falling Headed Into Week 11
Super Bowl Odds: Teams Rising, Falling Headed Into Week 11
Only about a month ago, Frank Reich -- then Colts head coach -- decided to make a change and put youngster Sam Ehlinger in over established veteran Matt Ryan. Ryan had an injury, but it seemed like a true franchise shift at the time. And then, after some time, Jim Irsay and the front office found that they had different plans, firing Reich and subsequently bringing in former Colts center and ESPN analyst Jeff Saturday absent any real coaching experience.
Of course, in true storybook fashion, Saturday notched his first win on the road against the (albeit floundering) Las Vegas Raiders. They continued this year's trend of notable underdog wins.
What did they do to improve their Super Bowl odds? What about others? Let's see what the oddsmakers have to say ahead of another week of action.
Super Bowl Odds For All 32 Teams Heading Into Week 11
|Team||Week 9||Week 10|
|Kansas City Chiefs||+500||+500|
|San Francisco 49ers||+1100||+800|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||+2000||+1800|
|Los Angeles Chargers||+3000||+3500|
|New England Patriots||+6000||+6000|
|New York Jets||+7000||+6000|
|New York Giants||+8000||+6000|
|Green Bay Packers||+15000||+7000|
|Los Angeles Rams||+5000||+15000|
|New Orleans Saints||+15000||+20000|
|Las Vegas Raiders||+15000||+30000|
Super Bowl Odds Risers
San Francisco 49ers Super Bowl Odds (+800) (Bet $100 to Collect $900) Click here for the best odds, available at FanDuel
The Niners' fifth win of the season wasn't exactly a walk in the park. Facing off with a recently injury-ravaged Chargers team, San Francisco trailed by six at the half and went into the fourth down 16-13. But Jimmy Garoppolo and the boys rallied to score nine unanswered, ending the game with 387 yards to L.A.'s 238. They did what they've proven to do repeatedly, sporting a balanced attack and possessing the ball.
Through nine games this season, the 49ers are sixth in time of possession, averaging more than 31 minutes per contest. Their rushing attack averages a hair over 28 rush attempts a game, which exceeds the league average of 26.8, while their passing game averages 31 attempts to the league average of 33.7. All things considered, they are balanced and don't do too much solely on the arm of Jimmy G or on the backs of rushers like Christian McCaffrey and (formerly) Jeff Wilson.
For all their efforts, Kyle Shanahan's squad is ranked as the NFL's 11th most efficient offense -- 13th passing and 26th rushing. But their balance doesn't end there. Defensively, they are fifth among all teams, trailing only the Jets, Eagles, Broncos, and Rams. The fifth-rated rush defense is supported by Pro Football Focus' second-rated tackling grade, while the secondary is fourth in coverage. Even their slightly hampered pass rush -- led by Nick Bosa -- is 12th at getting after opposing signal callers.
The overall strength of this team, though not elite in most regards, is what holds them up as a Super Bowl contender despite their simply OK 5-4 record. San Francisco is a half-game behind Seattle in their division and currently seventh of seven NFC playoff teams. Still, they've seen their title odds go from +1600 to open the year up to +1000 a week ago and now to +800.
The Niners' implied probability saw the largest increase weekly, as it now sits at 8.3%. The Bills, Chiefs, and Eagles are the only teams with better probabilities. If they continue their solid play, there's no reason to think they won't compete for it all come January.
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Indianapolis Colts Super Bowl Odds (+20000) (Bet $100 to Collect $20,100) - Click here for the best odds, available at DraftKings
Indianapolis' championship odds have taken quite the unexpected journey over the course of the half-season. Back at the onset, they checked in at +2500, putting them above the top half of the NFL in that regard. However, after four weeks, they were at a longer +6000 and bounced around in the ensuing three weeks. And then, two weeks ago, they plummeted to +20000 and then +40000 prior to Week 10.
After the shocking changes at both head coach and quarterback, the Colts' most recent win -- their fourth of the year -- has again cut their odds to +20000. Positioned as four-point underdogs on the road against Josh McDaniels, Derek Carr, and Davante Adams. Matt Ryan and the Colts were outgained in the passing game but excelled with Jonathan Taylor and the run game. They had more than 200 rushing yards and 2 scores on the ground, beating out the Raiders in first downs despite a turnover.
Indy's now 1-3 in their last four but 3-3 if you look at their last six alone. After all, is said and done, they are 4-5-1 and 2.5 games behind Tennessee after a busy few weeks. PFF grades them only 26th of all teams, but they are ninth as a defensive unit -- tied for seventh against the run with solid tackling and pursuit. That's without superstar linebacker Shaquille Leonard, who is now done for the season due to back surgery.
Through this journey, the Colts' chances at winning the AFC South have arrived at +800, back from both the Titans and Jaguars, whereas their playoff berth odds have moved to +550 as opposed to -900 to miss them. That speaks to their challenges, not to mention a very below-average offense with its fair share of question marks. On tap next is a home matchup with a very tough Philadelphia Eagles team. In other words, if you're waiting for the odds to drop further, next week might just be the time to buy in to the longish shot of an Indy championship.
Super Bowl Odds Fallers
Buffalo Bills (+400) (Bet $100 to Collect $500) - Click here for the best odds, available at FanDuel
Another week, and another week in which we see Buffalo take a dive in the odds-based standings. In spite of Josh Allen fighting through an elbow injury to play in Week 10 against the Vikings, Minnesota got the best of the Bills on their home turf in dramatic fashion.
Minnesota trailed 24-10 at the half and -- after the catch of the year by Justin Jefferson -- were stuffed at the goal line with very little time left in the game. But then they took the lead with a fumble for a touchdown with only 40 seconds on the clock. Allen and the team were able to get a field goal to tie things up and send the game to overtime, but in OT, the Minnesota defense held, and Buffalo's didn't, allowing a 33-yard field goal for the win.
For the Bills, it marked their second straight loss to an AFC opponent (the Jets last week). The outcome provided a mix of optimism and worry. On one hand, Allen did what he did -- complete 29 of 43 attempts and total 414 yards -- with a UCL injury, but on the other, Buffalo displayed a weakness they had not shown until recently.
That weakness was specific to the inability to stop an elite wide receiver and a now-show run defense. Jefferson was able to win against Buffalo's highly-held secondary to the tune of 10 catches for 193 yards and a touchdown. He wasn't the only one who ate either. Dalvin Cook turned just 14 carries into 119 yards and a touchdown, and he was complemented by another 28 yards from other Minnesota contributors. From the Bills' perspective, their poor showing was greeted with a 29.7 rush grade -- their worst of the year but only 1.7 below last week's.
The Bills' defense will have to find the run defense that got them to this point. It isn't an end-all-be-all, but it would help to keep teams from establishing a strong play-action passing game on top of them playing keep away from Josh Allen and the high-powered offense.
The chinks in Buffalo's armor haven't gone unnoticed by oddsmakers. Just two weeks ago, they were at +225, whereas today, they have seen those worsen to +400. They are just ahead of the Chiefs (+500), with their implied probability to win the title down to 20% (still an NFL-best). It's a slippery slope, but we'll see if they can bounce back with a win over Cleveland in what figures to be snowy conditions at Highmark Stadium.
Chicago Bears (+100000) (Bet $100 to Collect $100,100) - Click here for the best odds, available at FanDuel
Just when the public thought Chicago was making a turn for the better, behind better play from Justin Fields and a better offensive philosophy, they lose another winnable game. At home and favored against a struggling Detroit team, they put up a solid offensive performance but failed to capitalize defensively, allowing 31 points to their 30.
Fields accounted for 314 total yards and all 4 endzone trips, as Chicago racked up 258 rushing yards to its opponents' 95. The young quarterback did, however, turn the ball over on a pick-six that gave the Lions the juice to get to the finish line for the victory. A 55.8 PFF grade is what they had to speak to for their offensive efficiency.
The defense was very bad against the run, and while their pass rush improved, the coverage grade was their third-worst of the year. Altogether, the 41.4 mark was their worst as a unit in 2022 to date.
Going into Week 10, Chicago is 30th as a team and tied for dead last (with Houston) as a defense. At 56.9, their pass rush grade is 1.4, worse than the Falcons and is a big factor in their shortcomings overall.
It was a very temporary shortening of their title odds to +50000 a week ago. They're back to +100000 and will have a hard time staying in the playoff hunt with a mere three wins to their ledger. They will be in Atlanta on Sunday afternoon, searching for a key win to build on for the remainder of the campaign.
Brett Oswalt has been writing about sports for five years, has covered everything from the NBA to College Football DFS, and previously served as an editor at numberFire. He is a Senior Workforce Planning Analyst at Highmark by day, and an avid sports fan and girl-dad by night. He resides in Pittsburgh, PA with his wife, Marley, daughter, Aria, and goldendoodle, Braun.