Super Bowl Odds: Teams Rising, Falling Headed Into Week 12
Super Bowl Odds: Teams Rising, Falling Headed Into Week 12
Back not so far in time, the Detroit Lions were losers of five consecutive games and had a 1-6 record. They were virtually out of it and headed for another year of rebuilding. The murmurs started to come up surrounding head coach Dan Campbell's job security, too. But since that point, his team has flipped the switch in November. They first surprised the Packers in a low-scoring upset win before going on the road to defeat the Chicago Bears in a shootout.
This past week, they continued their run of good play with a decisive 31-18 road win over the Giants.
How did their on-field play and end-of-game result improve their Super Bowl odds? Let's see how far the oddsmakers have allowed them to climb.
Super Bowl Odds For All 32 Teams Heading Into Week 12
Super Bowl Odds Risers
Kansas City Chiefs Super Bowl Odds (+450) (Bet $100 to Collect $550) Click here for the best odds, available at FanDuel
Another week, another Kansas City win. The Chiefs now move to 8-2 overall with a three-game lead in the AFC West. They do so after besting another divisional opponent -- the Los Angeles Chargers -- but it took a bit more effort for them to put them away.
This past week, the Chargers got out to a 20-13 halftime lead and headed into the fourth up 20-16. However, despite an impressive LA score with less than two minutes to go, Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce did what they do, connecting on a 17-yard touchdown with 31 seconds to go, ultimately notching a 30-27 come-from-behind win at SoFi Stadium. They were certainly challenged, but this seems to have served as just another proving ground for Mahomes and his team's championship metal.
Slowly but surely, the oddsmakers have now elevated the Chiefs to the same level as the once front-running Bills. At +450, K.C. has improved their odd-implied probability by a league-best 1.5% week over week and owns an 18.2% chance at the championship. They're now 2.8% above the Philadelphia Eagles and have come all this way from +1000 odds -- carrying an implied probability of 9.1% -- at the start of the season.
They've undoubtedly had their clutch moments, but the main reasons for their progress are their play and efficiency. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), the Chiefs are the second-best team in the league behind the Eagles, rating first in offense, second in pass offense, and a somewhat surprising 12th defensively. Mahomes is only a slim second to Tua Tagovailoa among charted passers and is first in yardage by nearly 300 passing yards. And as for the other offensive cog, Travis Kelce, well he's doing his usual elite thing. His 92.1 receiving grade is first among eligible tight ends by a gap of 6.5. In fact, he trails only Christian McCaffrey and Tyreek Hill among players from across all positions.
The Chiefs' love is definitely warranted, especially when you look down the road at what's to come. Next up they'll get a completely banged-up Rams team at Arrowhead before three straight on the road -- two of which should be easy wins over the Broncos and Texans. It's conceivable for them to finish 14-3 or maybe even 15-2 and capture the top seed in the AFC. They're on the track toward their second Super Bowl run in three years.
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Detroit Lions Super Bowl Odds (+25000) (Bet $100 to Collect $25,100) - Click here for the best odds, available at DraftKings
It's certainly obvious to say, but Detroit is far from the level of competition Kansas City presents, but as with the Chiefs the Lions are stringing wins together. They got off to a very slow start this year thanks in part to injuries as well as narrow losses (some would call it bad luck). They had mustered only one win by the time Halloween rolled around and things were looking bleak for an outside shot at the playoffs.
Fast forward three weeks, and here we are. Coach Dan Campbell has his Lions out to a 4-6 record with wins over the Packers, Bears, and Giants in consecutive weeks. What might be most notable is that they won two of those on the road in cold-weather cities. Most recently, they turned in a commanding win in New York. Against the Giants, Detroit went up 17-6 at the half, and from that point on they held for a 31-18 score in their favor. Jamaal Williams had three rushing scores offensively, while the defense held Saquon Barkley and his team to 89 yards rushing and turned them over on three different occasions. Detroit had two sacks and two interceptions, one courtesy of first-rounder Aidan Hutchinson.
Detroit's defense has been solid in two of the last three weeks, but overall they're still 29th overall as a unit. The offense is in the top 12 of all teams, yet it isn't enough to bring their overall grade higher than 26th. They're ahead of only the Panthers, Chargers, Giants, Bears, Cardinals, and Texans in that regard.
The offensive line and running game are there, and while the defensive improvements that come with experience are there, it still seems like the Lions are being overhyped for what they can do. They're still four games short of the Vikings in the win column, and their implied probability is just 0.4%. They still have a lot more to prove in the coming weeks.
Super Bowl Odds Fallers
Minnesota Vikings (+1800) (Bet $100 to Collect $1,900)
Speaking of those Vikings, just when the public and oddsmakers thought they could trust them, they let everyone down. In the follow-up to an impressive win over the Buffalo Bills, Minnesota put up a flat-out stinker on their home field against the Dallas Cowboys.
Minnesota gave up a balanced attack to the likes of Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard. The Dallas passing offense threw for 276 yards and 2 scores while the rushing attack totaled 151 yards and another 2 scores. The final result for the Vikings? A 40-3 loss at U.S. Bank Stadium. Minnesota's 60.7 grade was their second-lowest of the year, and the same goes for their 58.1 passing grade. And as for the defense, they had a coverage grade below 60 for the first time since Week 8.
On the season, Minnesota is PFF's sixth-best team in terms of grade and efficiency. On the offensive side, they are 11th compared to 7th defensively. The offseason acquisition of Za'Darius Smith has paid off to a point, but it still hasn't been quite enough to overcome the offense's shortcomings in spots.
From week to week, Minnesota saw their Super Bowl odds fall from +1200 to +1800 in that seven-day span. Their implied probability is down to 5.3% -- in line with the Buccaneers and Dolphins and trailing the Cowboys (at 8.3%).
Carolina Panthers (+80000) (Bet $100 to Collect $80,100) - Click here for the best odds, available at FanDuel
The Panthers continue toward their dive into the deep, as they potentially work toward the top pick in the 2023 draft. In Week 11, they fell to the Baltimore Ravens by the count of 13-3 in a supremely low-scoring game on the road. Baker Mayfield and the offense struggled immensely and tallied just 205 total yards to the Ravens' 308.
In the start, Mayfield failed to pass for a score and turned the ball over on two occasions. He also was sacked four times for 27 yards and had just 196 passing yards. The run game didn't get off the ground, either, failing to rush for 50 yards on the backs of D'Onta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard. At the end of the day, it was another poor performance for the Carolina offense post Christian McCaffrey.
By grade, Carolina checks in 27th of all teams and is 28th as an offensive unit. The defense -- with Brian Burns and others showing out -- has held up to a point, but it just hasn't been enough against stiffer competition. Regardless of the quarterback under center, the Panthers have dropped three of their last four. They have lost every single game on the road this season, and though they have the Denver Broncos on the horizon after the bye they'll see the Seahawks on the road and a couple of tough road games to end the season in the Buccaneers and Saints.
The Panthers are ahead of only the Bears and Texans in Super Bowl odds. A longshot $100 bet would bring back more than $80,000, but at this point, the Panthers are at the bottom of the NFC South and 2.5 games back of the division-leading Bucs. They aren't likely to overcome the Bucs, let alone the 5-6 Falcons and 4-7 Saints.
Brett Oswalt has been writing about sports for five years, has covered everything from the NBA to College Football DFS, and previously served as an editor at numberFire. He is a Senior Workforce Planning Analyst at Highmark by day, and an avid sports fan and girl-dad by night. He resides in Pittsburgh, PA with his wife, Marley, daughter, Aria, and goldendoodle, Braun.