2020 US Presidential Election Odds: Significant Odds Movements Following First Debate

The first election debate has a big impact on the US election betting market.
Sam Eaton
Wed, September 30, 10:17 AM

2020 US Presidential Election Odds: Betting Update Following First Debate 

It was a very heated debate at Ohio, with both Joe Biden and Donald Trump scrambling to get their points across, and cast shadows on their opposition. 

Chris Wallace had an impossible job as moderator of trying to control the debate, with both candidates speaking over each other throughout the night. The first election debate became very scrappy, and you could even hear Joe Biden ask Donald Trump to "shut up" at one point. 

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It was clear that Donald Trump wanted to unsettle Joe Biden in the early exchanges, and online bookmakers believe that tactic may have backfired on the current President. Since the start of the US Election, online bookmakers have cut Joe Biden's 2020 election odds, making him an even stronger favorite in the betting market. 

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Latest 2020 US Presidential Election Odds 

  UK Odds (US Odds) % Implied Chance 
Joe Biden 5/7 (-140) 58.34%
Donald Trump 11/8 (+138) 42.10%

Before the first Presidential election debate, Joe Biden was the 4/5 (-125) favorite to win the 2020 US election, which implied he had a 55.6% chance of winning. A few bookmakers offered even shorter odds, the lowest price odds on the market was 4/6 (-150), which implied a 60% chance. 

If you take the best odds on the US election, Joe Biden's chances of winning the 2020 US election have increased from 55.6% to 58.34%. 

Donald Trump's 2020 US election odds pre-debate were 6/5 (+120), which implied he had a 45.5% chance of winning the 2020 US election. A few sports betting sites had lower odds on Donald Trump though, the shortest odds available were 1/1 (+100), which implied a 50% chance of winning the election.

Donald Trump's chances of winning the 2020 US election have dropped from 45.5% to 42.10% chance tonight. 

Since the start of the debate, 73% of bookmakers on our UK site have cut odds on Joe Biden winning the 2020 US election.

This combined shift of 5.63% is the biggest swing in the market in six months, since the odds stabilised after Biden became the presumptive Democrat nominee back in April.

2020 US Presidential Election Betting 

Despite bookmakers cutting Joe Biden's US election odds during the first Presidential election debate, online bettors have stuck with Donald Trump. The current POTUS was popular in the US election betting market leading up to the debate, and the words he said during the debate seemed to relate with online bettors. 

Since the start of the first debate, 51% of bets in the 2020 US election odds market have been on Donald Trump, and only 45% have been on his opponent Joe Biden. There have been a few more ambitious bettors backing Kamala Harris. 

Our UK site works with all the major UK betting sites, and all of them can legally accept bets on the US election. There has now been over $128 million wagered on one of the partners in the UK. At the time of writing, $48 million have been placed on Joe Biden and just over $70 million on Donald Trump. 

The 2020 US election is set to be the biggest betting event in history. 

You can follow OddsChecker on Twitter to get all the latest US election updates.

Historical Politics Betting Patterns 

We've reported previously how the current 2020 US election patterns might be good news for Donald Trump. There are various political events in the last decade where the bookmakers have been wrong, but online bettors have predicted the correct outcome. Below are examples: 

Donald Trump 2016 election win: Hillary Clinton was the overwhelming favorite for the majority of the 2016 election campaign, however, online bettors backed Donald Trump in their thousands. Despite not being the bookmakers favorite for the US election, Donald Trump accounted for 61% of all bets. Bookmakers got it wrong, but online bettors called it correctly. 

The UK leaving the European Union (Brexit): Online sportsbooks didn't think there was any chance the UK would leave the European Union. However, 73% of all online sports bettors bet on Brexit happening. 

Boris Johnson being installed as the new Prime Minister: On this occasion, both online bookmakers and sports bettors predicted the outcome. Boris Johnson was installed as the betting favorite as soon as Theresa May walked away from the position. Just over 39% of bets were placed on Boris Johnson being the next Prime Minister. 

Betting on the 2020 US Election 

Unfortunately, US residents still can't bet on the US election. However, luckily there are various states which allow online betting on sports. All the major bookmakers are offering welcome offers to new players, check out the bonuses you can claim here

Even though US residents can't bet on the US election, there are various events they can bet on including the Super Bowl, NBA Finals and MLB

OddsChecker is regularly used by global publications, including BBC News, Fox News, Washington Examiner plus many more.

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