Chiefs vs Bengals Prediction: Ride This Samaje Perine AFC Championship Prop
Chiefs vs Bengals Prediction: Ride This Samaje Perine AFC Championship Prop
The AFC Championship is here, and the rematch is set for the newly-budded rivalry between Mahomes and Burrow. There has been trash talk all week, but we finally get to see who advances to the Super Bowl tonight in Kansas City, Missouri. In the biggest game for the Bengals of the season, there is one player I love to step up.
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Chiefs vs. Bengals Start Time and Where to Watch
- Date: Sunday, January 29, 2022
- Start Time: 6:30 pm ET
- Where to Watch: CBS
Chiefs vs. Bengals Odds
- Spread: Chiefs -2 (-105), Bengals +2 (-110)
- Moneyline: Chiefs (-120), Bengals (+115)
- Total: Over 48 (-110), Under 48 (-105)
Click here for Chiefs vs Bengals odds
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cincinnati Bengals Prediction
Samaje Perine is maybe the last guy you would bring up as a critical player for the Bengals, but I think he is being overlooked in this game. Joe Mixon is the RB1 here. Perine only has 394 rushing yards this season with two touchdowns, to Mixon's 814 rushing yards and seven touchdowns with two fewer games played. However, where the value lies in Perine today is with his receiving yards.
While Mixon is expected to get more carries tonight, I expect Perine to be the main passing look. Last week, we took the same bet on his receiving yards against Buffalo, and Perine had five catches on five targets for 31 yards. Perine had only surpassed 30 receiving yards in five games before last week this season. So why back it again?
The Bengals are dealing with injuries to their offensive line, and their offensive line wasn't the best, to begin with. Due to that, Perine has been used more as a pass blocker, a role he does much better than Mixon. Joe Mixon has a pass-blocking rating of 30 per PFF, allowing three sacks and four pressures with more snaps played than Perine. Samaje has a rating of 72 in pass-blocking, with not one sack allowed and only two pressures. With the increased usage of the running back as a pass blocker, he has, in turn, started running more routes on more snaps played. Perine has run a route on 49% of plays over the last two games, while Mixon has only run 31%.
Along with the increased usage of Perine as a pass blocker, he also has a great matchup against the Chiefs. The Chiefs allow the third-most receiving yards to running backs in the league, averaging 48.6 receiving yards to running backs per game. Part of this is because they are good at pressuring opposing quarterbacks, leading to more short passes and dump-offs for opposing teams. Perine thrives in this role.
In the regular season meeting between the Chiefs and Bengals, Perine had six receptions on seven targets for 49 yards. We only need 17 in this game. Last season in the playoffs, Perine had three receptions for 43 yards against the Chiefs. The 27-year-old should see a similar role in tonight's game as a pass blocker and run more routes than Mixon, making him the better passing option tonight. Mixon will get the carries, while Perine gets the targets.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cincinnati Bengals Pick
- 2 Unit Pick: Samaje Perine O16.5 Receiving Yards @ (-120) Bet $200 to collect $366. Fanduel has the best odds, click here
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Article Author
Ben Rajavuori is a handicapper out of Minneapolis, MN. He has been creating sports content for almost four years now and is an expert in all things NFL, MLB, NBA, UFC, and NCAAB. Ben thrives on diving deep into statistics to find the best angle on every bet. You can follow him on Twitter @WeBeatTheSpread.