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2022 NFL MVP Odds: Ranking The Top 10 Candidates Ahead of Week 1

Will Aaron Rodgers collect his third consecutive MVP or will another player get anointed as the league's most valuable player? Matt MacKay is here to rank his top 10 MVP candidates ahead of Week 1.
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Aaron Rodgers has four MVPs, including consecutive trophies across the past two seasons. Will he be able to replicate his efficiency without former All-Pro wide receiver Davante Adams? It seems difficult but it would be a mistake to rule out such a supremely talented quarterback with a Super Bowl-caliber roster.

The storylines entering Week 1 of the 2022 NFL season are abundant. It feels like a year filled with opportunities for players, including positions outside of quarterback, to cement their legacy with dominant performances. In an increasingly competitive league with parity lurking around every corner, who will be the player to rise above the rest to claim the 2022 Most Valuable Player award? Matt Mackay is here to make his predictions and rank the top 10 candidates heading into Week 1.

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PlayerOddsImplied Chance
Josh Allen+65013.33%
Tom Brady+85010.53%
Patrick Mahomes+90010%
Aaron Rodgers+10009.09%
Joe Burrow+12007.69%
Russell Wilson+14006.67%
Dak Prescott+16005.88%
Matthew Stafford+16005.88%
Jalen Hurts+20004.76%
Kyler Murray+20004.76%

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+1. JOSH ALLEN (QB - BUF) +650 (Bet $100 to win $650)

Buffalo drafted Josh Allen seventh overall in 2018 out of Wyoming. After a shaky 5-6 start to his career, the 25-year-old quarterback has ascended to superstardom across the last two seasons. Allen attempted a career-high 646 passes in 2021 and finished with over 4,400 passing yards and 42 total touchdowns. He's a dual-threat quarterback with a rocket arm and a loaded offense. Allen is the betting favorite for a reason. Yes, former OC Brian Daboll is gone but this is a quarterback with too much talent and a Super-Bowl caliber roster. Take the +650 and watch a magical season unfold in Western New York.

2. JOE BURROW (QB - CIN) +1200 (Bet $100 to win $1200)

After suffering a devastating knee injury in 2020, Joe Burrow returned with a vengeance in 2021. The 25-year-old is only entering his third year in the league and Cincinnati had one of the best offseasons of any team in the league, shoring up their offensive line and bringing in tight end Hayden Hurst to fully reload and attempt another Super Bowl run. Burrow benefits from having the strongest wide receiving corps in the league, led by former LSU teammate Ja'Marr Chase. He also has one of the most talented running backs, Joe Mixon, lining up behind him in the backfield to force opponents out of position, allowing Burrow to shred secondaries for another 4,600-yard season in 2022.

3. JALEN HURTS (QB - PHI) +2000 (Bet $100 to win $2000)

2021 was essentially Jalen Hurts' rookie season, as the 2020 season was mired in controversy surrounding the quarterback battle between him and Carson Wentz. Adding wide receiver A.J. Brown into the offense should boost Hurts' ability to progress as a passer, as he finished with just over 3,100 passing yards and 16 touchdowns last season. Hurts made his mark in the running game as the Eagles' primary ball carrier in 2021, churning out 784 yards and ten rushing touchdowns with his elite elusiveness. If Devonta Smith and Dallas Goedert can fully complement Brown's presence, Hurts has a fantastic shot to cash out his 2022 MVP odds at +2000.

4. LAMAR JACKSON (QB - BAL) +2000 (Bet $100 to win $2000)

Lamar Jackson has still not received his contract extension, meaning he will be hellbent on proving all of the doubters wrong again to gain respect and a massive payday on the horizon. The 24-year-old won his first MVP in 2019, finishing with 36 passing touchdowns and a 4:1 touchdown to interception ratio. He flashed his brilliance as a ball carrier during the same season, handling 176 carries for 1,206 yards and seven touchdowns. Jackson has packed on muscle this offseason to maintain durability after missing five games in 2021. Jackson will be even more dynamic with running back J.K. Dobbins returning from injury to counter the absence of wide receiver Marquise "Hollywood" Brown. Rashod Bateman, Mark Andrews, and rookie tight end Isaiah Likely will likely form his primary targets in 2022.

5. KIRK COUSINS (QB - MIN) +5000 (Bet $100 to win $5000)

Kirk Cousins is about to be fully unleashed under the play calling of new head coach Kevin O'Connell. The former Rams OC will be able to utilize Cousins' precision to scheme up dozens of big plays that will wind up in the end zone in 2022. In 2021, under defensive-minded head coach Mike Zimmer, Cousins still tossed over 4,200 yards and a bristling 33 touchdowns to just seven interceptions. The utilization of Dalvin Cook will be key, as he's been largely absent from the Vikings' passing game under Zimmer. Adam Thielen returns, K.J. Osborn proved his abilities towards the end of last season, and tight end Irv Smith Jr. finally has an opportunity to be a target hog in the tight end room. A pedestrian offensive line is the only weakness that Cousins will have to overcome to make a serious run at winning the 2022 NFL MVP.

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6. JONATHAN TAYLOR (RB - IND) +5000 (Bet $100 to win $500)

MVP has become a de facto quarterback award but Jonathan Taylor is talented enough to wind up in the final discussion. The 22-year-old running back was limited during his rookie campaign but exploded with Carson Wentz in 2021, churning out over 2,000 scrimmage yards and 20 touchdowns. Taylor now gets to play behind quarterback Matt Ryan, who has Super Bowl experience and a legitimate playoff pedigree. His strong arm and Taylor's bruising frame will revolutionize Indianapolis' offense in 2022. Upon closer inspection, Taylor has never missed a game during any phase of his football career. This gives him a huge opportunity to win MVP and cash the 50/1 odds he's currently receiving.

7. TUA TAGOVAILOA (QB - MIA) +5000 (Bet $100 to win $500)

Miami's new head coach, Mike McDaniel, has talked glowingly of Tua Tagovailoa's throwing mechanics the entire offseason. While social media tends to cast Tagovailoa in a negative light due to frequent underthrows, he now has a coach who legitimately believes in him. That is a massive factor that cannot be overstated. His personnel also improved, with the additions of left tackle Terron Armstead, wide receiver Tyreek Hill, and running backs Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert. The left-handed thrower still has Mike Gesicki and Jaylen Waddle, making the Dolphins one of the most underrated offenses in the league heading into 2022. Sprinkle some money on Tagovailoa to prove his haters wrong. At the very least, he is set to blow past 20 touchdowns and 3,000 passing yards for the first time in his three-year career.

8. DALVIN COOK (RB - MIN) +10000 (Bet $100 to win $10000)

As tempting as it was to consider Justin Jefferson as Minnesota's next MVP candidate, running back Dalvin Cook makes more sense. If head coach Kevin O'Connell can scheme ways to increase Cook's usage in the Vikings' passing game, expect Cook to set new personal records in all receiving categories. His best year as a receiver came in 2019 when Cook caught 53 receptions for 519 yards. Oddly enough, this did not yield any receiving touchdowns during his first Pro-Bowl season. Cook has since been nominated to the Pro Bowl every year and has finished with at least 1,100 rushing yards during this stretch. Cook is an elite runner with the rare combination of explosiveness, vision, and elusiveness to elevate him to the top of the 2022 MVP conversation.

9. AUSTIN EKELER (RB - LAC) +10000 (Bet $100 to win $10000)

Austin Ekeler is truly a dual-threat player at his position. The 26-year-old running back enters his fifth year in the league with at least 400 receiving yards in each of his previous four seasons, including a career-high 993 receiving yards in 2019. This includes eight touchdowns as a receiver in 2019 and 2021, where he finally broke through as a goal-line running back. Ekeler racked up 12 rushing touchdowns to blow past his previous career-high of three touchdowns on the ground. An improved offensive line, paired with a top-three quarterback in Justin Herbert, gives Ekeler a realistic chance of climbing up into the 2022 MVP conversation. At +10000 odds, why not take a chance on one of the most important players on a top-five offense to reach new heights?

10. AARON DONALD (DT - LAR) +15000 (Bet $100 to win $15000)

The recent controversy surrounding Aaron Donald swinging a helmet at a joint practice scuffle will not phase the league's best overall player once the season arrives. Donald has been an All-Pro defensive tackle for seven consecutive years and is a constant disruptor in opposing backfields. Whether he's shedding a double team, sacking the quarterback, or making an athletic diving tackle in open space, Donald is a premier talent that demands constant attention. He has recorded at least 12.5 sacks across each of the past four seasons and is now joined by All-Pro linebacker Bobby Wagner to solidify the Rams' front seven. Donald is too talented for one lineman to handle and always winds up making a big play at the end of games. If he returns to 20 sacks as he did during his 2018 campaign, the 2022 MVP will be well within his reach.


Matt is an avid writer, editor, and researcher. He enjoys analyzing the game within the game which is fantasy sports and sports betting. Music is another constant in his daily life. Matt loves spending time with his wife and three pets. He likes to read, listen to podcasts, and is constantly motivated to create the most accurate and engaging content in the sports betting industry.


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